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To: Mr. BSL who wrote (8768)10/17/1998 9:57:00 PM
From: Gottfried  Respond to of 34816
 
duke60, re PEI: read their disclosure statement some time. They do
have an ax to grind. They're not connected with the university,
even though that's the first impression one gets after hearing the name.

Here's a place for macro economic analysis by different people
from different institutions lp-llc.com You don't get the same "sky-is-falling" analysis all the time.

Gottfried



To: Mr. BSL who wrote (8768)10/18/1998 12:47:00 AM
From: Dennis J.  Respond to of 34816
 
Dick,

I received the spreadsheet. Probably will look at it tomorrow.

Regarding PEI, I have been reading their articles only for the last month or so. Because they are a billion dollar per year consulting organization with a wide variety of clients, I want to know what they are saying. They also called the market top in July almost to the day, so i cannot dismiss their forecasts outright. I just put it into my decision making process as another input. Something to be aware of, and to weigh.

FWIW, some market timers on SI seem to be giving PEI their due. Their correction dates over the next week or so, seem close to the PEI dates.

I expect that another significant near term correction is possible, and it may be severe. The interest rate reductions of last week, and future reductions seem to express concern by the Fed. So, I will proceed with caution. Hence no major exposure up or down, and therefore all I am holding are the ABX calls and cash.

Perhaps a conservative position, but one that lets me sleep well at night.

More tomorrow,

Dennis