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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20936)	10/18/1998 8:45:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Idea was picking these things a little earlier, weaker $ it affects on Latin Am and HK were being highlighted on this thread invoking cruel jokes that 'Ms Cohen listens to Ike'when she dissmissed recession and deflation, as an avid reader of this thread many a bulls read this thread but- the projections finally came true albeit a delay of three weeks the critics and their jokes are all reversed and Uncle Ike scored another big victory on bonds and equities, the touch is not lost it has just become too too good-- as I see it from my account... Our most important call need of 'cutting short term interest rates' what I called than 'moving of the yield curve' is unbelievably on the dot... ANALYSIS by James C. Cooper AN OCTOBER SURPRISE: WHAT'S BEHIND THE LATEST RATE CUT Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan has moved to head off the most likely cause for a recession -- a credit squeeze. That's why the Fed made its surprise move between formal meetings on Oct. 15, when it cut two key interest rates by a quarter point. It reduced the federal funds rate, the overnight borrowing rate between banks, to 5%, and it cut the discount rate, the charge to commercial banks when they borrow directly from a district Federal Reserve bank, to 4.75%. The Fed said that "growing caution by lenders and unsettled conditions in financial markets more generally are likely to be restraining aggregate demand in the future." In English, banks are getting very picky about who they lend to, and investors are fleeing the markets for safer territory, leaving the economy without the financial grease necessary to keep its wheels rolling. The move was attention-grabbing, because it didn't occur at a regularly scheduled policy meeting. The markets were certainly surprised -- and pleased. The Dow Jones industrial average soared 330 points before Thursday's final bell. Also, by cutting the domestically symbolic, but internationally important, discount rate, the Fed sent a loud message around the world. By moving between meetings, is Greenspan signaling that the Fed is behind the curve on preempting a U.S. recession? Not at all. In fact, based on his comments to the National Association of Business Economics on Oct. 7, the Fed is moving to thwart a credit squeeze, which if left unaddressed could end up causing the next recession. However, as Greenspan has said, this is unlike any credit squeeze that he has seen before. First of all, the Fed did not cause the situation. It usually does so by tightening credit with higher interest rates. This time the squeeze is emerging because financial markets are tightening up as investors face heightened perceptions of both risk and uncertainty. As Greenspan put it on Oct. 7, there are two aspects to the current credit squeeze: a flight to quality, reflecting increasing risk, and a flight to liquidity, reflecting increasing uncertainty. Risk is quantifiable. Investors can easily measure it by looking at the yield spread between a riskless asset, such as a Treasury bond, and a riskier asset, such as a corporate bond. Already those types of credit spreads are widening, meaning that investors want a higher premium for risk. As a result, credit is becoming less available and more expensive for many companies. But the real problem now, and a key factor behind the Fed's latest move, is increased uncertainty, which no one can measure. Greenspan noted that since the Russian debt default, there has been a quantum leap in uncertainty that is causing investors to seek liquidity. They are simply "disengaging" as Greenspan put it, or looking for a way out, with the result that fewer investable funds are entering the market. The Fed is especially concerned about an evaporation of credit due to people simply disengaging from the markets in search of securities that can provide both low risk and high liquidity. Greenspan says that, because investors don't understand what is happening, "they just want out." The result: Prices for both stocks and bonds drop. And funds that had been available to promote economic growth are simply not there anymore. Other countries may well follow the Fed's lead and cut rates, but that should not be viewed as formal coordination. Greenspan's view has always been that the most efficient global economic policy is for each country to do what is necessary to promote growth in its own economy, thereby maximizing world growth. But given the Fed's leadership role in the global economy, the timing of the cut may well have been a stroke of genius. It comes amid signs that the global financial situation is starting to stabilize. The dollar is already weakening, taking pressure off foreign currencies pegged to the U.S. dollar, such as the Brazilian real and the Hong Kong dollar. And Japan appears to be moving decisively to promote an economic recovery and fix its banking system. If the global financial mess is really hitting bottom, the rate cut will strongly reinforce that notion and propel the forces of stability forward. And if nothing else, Greenspan has signaled to the world that he is serious about steering the world's largest economy out of harm's way.

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (20936)	10/18/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 50167

Watch list---Look at BEN proposed as my best idea with IFMX at 27 now 37- 13-day EMA Cross Above 50-day EMA AAPL 36 11/16 1/16 ALTR 37 5/8 -7/8 TXCC 20 1/16 1 13/16 YPF 26 5/8 -1 Close Below the 13-day EMA ADSK 23 7/8 -3/8 ALSC 2 3/16 -1/8 BA 32 1/4 -1 11/16 BT 51 3/8 -5 1/2 CPU 13 7/8 -7/8 CTXS 59 13/16 -1 9/16 EPG 33 -1 7/16 KLIC 12 -7/16 LRCX 9 31/32 -1 3/32 MO 48 -13/16 OXHP 8 11/16 -1/32 QNTM 14 7/8 -1 1/4 QUAL 1 13/16 -3/16 SNE 69 -3 5/8 Close Above the 13-day EMA AFCI 6 1/32 17/32 ANF 40 1/8 3 APA 26 13/16 2 1/4 CCL 27 3/8 1 7/8 COB 3 1/16 5/16 COO 16 1/4 5/16 IFCI 6 3/4 1/2 JDAS 11 1/4 1 11/16 MLIN 3 5/16 1/4 RIG 30 7/8 2 3/8 SGI 9 9/16 SMOD 17 11/16 5/16 TLAB 44 15/16 6 3/16 Gap Up AFCI 6 1/32 17/32 ANF 40 1/8 3 BEN 37 1/4 3 CCL 27 3/8 1 7/8 CNF 28 2 COB 3 1/16 5/16 IRF 6 15/16 1 7/16 ORB 28 1 15/16 PGR 127 3/4 19 3/16 PSFT 22 3/8 1 15/16 RXSD 17 5/8 3/4 SLB 52 4 7/8 SUNW 50 1/4 1 7/16 TLAB 44 15/16 6 3/16 XIRC 24 3/4 1 3/4 Stochastic - Bearish ALA 19 5/8 -1 1/4 AXA 53 1/4 -1 3/4 CSCO 55 3/8 -1 9/16 EMC 55 3/8 -1 1/2 JPM 89 1/2 -2 3/4 OSI 20 3/4 -1 1/16 QNTM 14 7/8 -1 1/4 SGP 97 7/8 -1 1/2 TQNT 16 -1/2 VOD 120 5/16 -5 11/16 Percentage Losers ALA 19 5/8 -1 1/4 BT 51 3/8 -5 1/2 CPU 13 7/8 -7/8 LRCX 9 31/32 -1 3/32 Close Above the 50-day EMA AMZN 99 7/16 2 3/8 ANDW 14 7/16 9/16 APA 26 13/16 2 1/4 DO 27 2 1/2 G 44 5/8 1 9/16 HWP 54 2 1/16 IRF 6 15/16 1 7/16 PGR 127 3/4 19 3/16 SLB 52 4 7/8 UTEK 17 1/2 7/8 Price Losers AOL 102 -3 11/16 BT 51 3/8 -5 1/2 JPM 89 1/2 -2 3/4 SNE 69 -3 5/8 VOD 120 5/16 -5 11/16 Price Gainers BEN 37 1/4 3 PGR 127 3/4 19 3/16 SLB 52 4 7/8 TLAB 44 15/16 6 3/16 UNPH 48 1/4 2 3/4 Record Volume BT 51 3/8 -5 1/2 CCI 41 13/16 2 Percentage Gainers COB 3 1/16 5/16 IRF 6 15/16 1 7/16 JDAS 11 1/4 1 11/16 NE 15 1/4 2 PGR 127 3/4 19 3/16 MACD - Bullish COMS 31 19/32 21/32 FHWN 35 5/8 3/4 HDI 36 15/16 15/16 IRF 6 15/16 1 7/16 MRK 136 2 3/4 ORB 28 1 15/16 PGR 127 3/4 19 3/16 TXCC 20 1/16 1 13/16 TXN 59 1/4 2 3/4 WAMU 38 13/16 1 1/16 Record Price Low CTII 7/8 0 RMTR 5/16 0 Close Below the 50-day EMA DELL 56 11/16 -1 3/8 DS 28 5/8 -3/8 OSI 20 3/4 -1 1/16 QNTM 14 7/8 -1 1/4 QUAL 1 13/16 -3/16 RDRT 7 9/16 -3/32 TQNT 16 -1/2 VOD 120 5/16 -5 11/16 Record Price High GENZ 37 7/8 -1/4 TXCC 20 1/16 1 13/16 XON 76 5/16 11/16 This Months Best Trends ICST 12 5/8 1 1/8 TER 25 3/8 1 5/8 Zacks Earnings Suprise IRF 6 15/16 1 7/16 MLIN 3 5/16 1/4 MRK 136 2 3/4 QNTM 14 7/8 -1 1/4 MACD - Bearish KCS 4 9/16 1/16 Record Price Break Outs TXCC 20 1/16 1 13/16 XON 76 5/16 11/16 Price Performers Doing Well ... PGR Up 19 3/16 at 127 3/4 TLAB Up 6 3/16 at 44 15/16 SLB Up 4 7/8 at 52 BEN Up 3 at 37 1/4 ANF Up 3 at 40 1/8 Doing Poorly ... VOD Down -5 11/16 at 120 5/16 BT Down -5 1/2 at 51 3/8 AOL Down -3 11/16 at 102 SNE Down -3 5/8 at 69 FTE Down -3 7/16 at 73 3/16 Percentage Changes Doing Well ... IRF + 1 7/16 26.14% at 6 15/16 TERN + 2 1/2 22.47% at 13 5/8 PGR + 19 3/16 17.67% at 127 3/4 JDAS + 1 11/16 17.65% at 11 1/4 TLAB + 6 3/16 15.97% at 44 15/16 Doing Poorly ... LRCX - 1 3/32 -9.89% at 9 31/32 BT - 5 1/2 -9.67% at 51 3/8 QUAL - 3/16 -9.38% at 1 13/16 QNTM - 1 1/4 -7.75% at 14 7/8 TLCM - 1/8 -7.14% at 1 5/8