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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (31869)	10/18/1998 10:07:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

<<<If capital is disappearing and recession is on the horizon, then how can the CRB and gold rise in price, except for a weaker dollar, unless you're saying that inflation is about to emerge?>> GZ, the FED recognized that we are in a deflationary period and economic slowdown. To avert such developments which will bring us to a deep and prolonged recession, the FED is trying to inflate and chose the stagflation pasture if possible to gain some time. Stagflation inevitabely will lower financial assets in the long term and rise commodity prices. Both in the interest of the US. Why?? Most of the countries in the world in deep recession or depression are rich in natural resources and a move upwards will improve their balance sheet. Second the US today is the biggest grain exporter, a lower dollar will help the US farmers much more than bugetary spending. If the US FED will be able to manuver this phase we will be out of the problems by 2000, with a weaker dollar, lower stock market but strong economy. As for gold they will try to keep it down as it is perceived as an inflationary signal. (speaking of FED manipulation) BWDIK Haim

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (31869)	10/18/1998 1:40:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

>>>If capital is disappearing and recession is on the horizon, then how can the CRB and gold rise in price<<< GZ, a little known fact is that Gold performs better in deflationery times that inflationery times. Just another myth perpetuated by Galbraith's short term financial mind. "perpetual down trend for more years that I can remember" All documented in Jastram's "The Gold Constant" The South African Mining index made spectacular gains in the 30's while everything else was in the pits. Sure Gold has been in a bear market for a long time and equities have been in a bull market for a long time, but examine both in the 20 year period prior to 82. Are you trying to tell me that trends only go in one direction. That defies logic and any reasonable sense of history. The best time to buy something is when the street has written it off and don't forget that the day after you posted to me that gold was going to $5 an ounce, the XAU bottomed and proceeded to almost double in a 4 week period -ggggg- I will also cite Apple Computer, which was suppose to be out of business by now that is a three bagger for the year. Greeny will have to continue lowering rates and that will debase the overvalued $USD. That's why gold will perform - very simple - don't fight the fed. bb