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To: Gunnar who wrote (253)	10/21/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 486

Copper level 'will return to glut next year' By Margaret Doyle Daily Telegraph, October 22 THE worldwide copper surplus, which dipped this year, is set to rise again next year, the head of the International Wrought Copper Council, the copper users group, warned yesterday. The forecast, from Simon Payton, the council's secretary general, is further bad news for producers who have seen the price of copper collapse by more than $1,000 a tonne from $2,700 a tonne early last year. Mr Payton expects the surplus to dip from 460,000 tonnes last year to 300,000 tonnes this year, but to rise again to half a million tonnes next year. Consumption is expected to be flat this year at 13.2m tonnes, and to increase slightly to 13.5m next year. Production is expected to fall from 13.6m tonnes last year to just below 13.5m tonnes this year. However, production is expected to jump to almost 14m tonnes next year as big Latin American copper mines come on stream, despite an expected production fall in China and the former Soviet Union. Mr Payton said the former Soviet Union "is trying to maintain exports, but there is a risk of less output due to the economic troubles there". telegraph.co.uk:80/et?ac=000853717812049&rtmo=rEba2F2X&atmo=99999999&P4_FOLLOW_ON=/98/10/22/cncop22.html&pg=/et/98/10/22/cncop22.html

To: Gunnar who wrote (253)	10/22/1998 10:30:00 PM
From: Tomas	Respond to of 486

Can Kabila survive the current military-political meltdown in his country? Regional meeting on Congo crisis timely Daily Nation, October 22 Can President Laurent Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo survive the current military-political meltdown in his country? To the optimists and his allies, the answer is yes. To the pessimists and foes, its a pipe dream and a lost cause. To the neutral political observer and analyst, the answer is somewhere in betweenand therein lies the crux of the matter of the Congo imbroglio. What is not immutable, though is that neither side in the conflict in the former Zaire can at the moment claim to have the situation under control, nor well-thought out, militarily or otherwise. As the military situation on the ground swings like a pendulum, so do the political fortunes of the key players change. However, the Congo crisis is rapidly acquiring the hallmark of long-drawn out quagmire as it attracts more regional countries and with it the risk of regional conflagration looms large. It is the latter threat that worries the region. In this regard, the recent one-day summit hosted by President Daniel arap Moi on the Congo was not only timely, but a success in that it sought to galvanise and sensitise the regional leadership to the inherent powder-keg that the Congo crisis could be. It also sought to harmonise a regional search for a solution to the crisis. The key aspects, being the call for an immediate cessation of hostilities, the creation of a national political consensus in the country and the formation of a neutral peace force. The tragedy is that neither side has responded to the Nairobi Summit proposals. They have opted to seek military advantages on the battlefield. The import of this is that the protagonists and their allies are still keen on pursuing a purely military objective at this moment and are imbued with a false sense of security if not capacity and capability. However, it is clear that a military solution is neither feasible nor tenable by either party notwithstanding their bravado. What is apparent though, is that if not checked this conflict could lead to the dismemberment of Congo with the attendant spill-over effects of ethnic genocide. This would be a horrendous prize to pay for the country and the region as a whole, and a fact neither side can ignore or wish away. God forbid it that the protagonists are hell-bent on pursuing this alternative. nationaudio.com

To: Gunnar who wrote (253)	10/26/1998 10:30:00 PM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 486

CONGO: Warring parties target mineral-rich heartland. Financial Times, October 24 By Mark Turner in Nairobi The 12-week-old conflict in Democratic Republic of Congo looks set to become a battle for the country's diamond and copper-rich mineral heartland, as rebels prepare to push southwards and regional forces supporting President Laurent Kabila shore up the southern capital, Lumumbashi. Zimbabwe, Angola and Namibia vowed at a summit this week to quell the country's Tutsi-led rebellion after rebels captured Mr Kabila's eastern stronghold in Kindu, and have sent in substantial reinforcements over the past two days. "We will not allow [Congo] to fall into the hands of those who have invaded it. Never, never," said Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe's president. But rebels claim they are prepared for a long, difficult war, and have named Mbuji-Mayi, the capital of Kasai province, as their next objective. Diamond fields around Mbuji-Mayi produced 17m carats of diamonds in 1997 out of a global total of 117m carats, worth between $300m and $350m. Congo was the fourth largest producer after Australia, Botswana and Russia last year, but instability recently prompted De Beers, the diamond giant, to pull out of Mbuji-Mayi. Katanga province further south straddles one of the world's principal copper-cobalt belts, but a dearth of investment meant that 1997 copper production stood at 37,000 tonnes out of a world total of over 9m tonnes. This was less than 10 per cent of Congo's production in the 1980s. Cobalt production stood at just over 3,000 tonnes last year. Despite the current unrest, mining consortia such as Kolwezi Tailings, Kolwezi Group West and Congo Mineral Developments - a 50-50 joint venture between America Mineral Fields and South Africa's Anglo American - are still talking to the government about developing the region. Regional foreign and defence ministers are due to meet in Lusaka on Monday to seek a peaceful solution to the crisis, but given the failure of other initiatives over the past two months, hopes are not high. The conflict has already dragged in Chad, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Angola, Uganda and Rwanda, and there are reports of Sudanese involvement. Fears are growing that the rebellion could precipitate the continent's first serious inter-regional war, especially if Congolese loyalists decide to target directly Uganda and Rwanda, which they accuse of supporting the rebellion. The United Nations has urged all parties not to take action which would lead to escalation. ft.com