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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: donald sew who wrote (31885)10/18/1998 2:05:00 PM
From: bobby beara  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
Excellent post Donald, thanks for that material.

>>Panic moves up or down are not to be trusted. S&P 500 futures moved 50 points higher in just a few minutes sparking heavy short covering.<<

One must look at the recent gap spikes up in the Hong Kong Market to realize this. The fundamentals in Hong Kong remain miserable as they are mired in after effects of the biggest real estate bubble of all time.

After looking more at the charts, it is very possible that the move down to 9/1 was the first leg down in the bear market. The zig-zag move up till now was a very large countertrend A-B-C rally, we are now sitting on heavy resistance OEX 520, which was the support thru the whole April thru August period.

It is said that bear market rallies are made to capitulate the bears and make everybody bullish and complacent again.

The Hang Seng last year had an ABC rally into October after the drop into early September and they must have largely felt the worse was over on 10/8/97. Are we thinking the same thing on 10/8/98?

bb



To: donald sew who wrote (31885)10/18/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 94695
 
Donald; Your post has a lot of merit , in it #4 might be a tad
off, as the short term interest rates do mean a lot to profits,
as most companies operate using short term debt to hold them
over and till invoices get paid.
---------------
It's not the interest rate that troubles me so much, it's the drop
in the dollar , #5 and it's been hammered harder than 10% in just the
last two weeks.
Jim