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To: Terrapin who wrote (5156)	10/18/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Respond to of 78815

Re: ag equips, USU Barron's has a feature story on cyclicals, mentioning New Holland and Deere by name along with Agco as particularly undervalued, and citing the buybacks. Honestly, if there's a big pop in the stocks Monday - especially NH, then I'd consider selling, since the "Barron's effect" rarely holds up long (see TRC) in the face of a continued lackadaisical story. This bear market ain't over yet, and the ag equips companies are now saying that there will be a bigger falloff in 1999 even than in 1998. So if there's a pop, chances are you'll be able to buy them back cheaper at a later date. Not that I'm knocking the businsesses, see biz.yahoo.com . But yes I'm trying to time it a bit. Re: USU, this is oh so typical of Wall Street. Didn't it get down to 13 again? I didn't see it. The dividend should be safe, and you're buying it because the dividend is safe - cash flow is still tremendous, and the higher electricity costs are transient. The AVLIS expense will be capitalized in a few years, and in a few more years, electricity costs will be cut to a fraction of what they are now. So you can buy it for the dividend, and sit on it, since once the dividend is paid consistently, the stock will likely hit $18-20 or so simply on that. The rest of the story may take longer to work out, but reported earnings will jump once they capitalize AVLIS. No doubt AVLIS is a big deal, but as I understand it now they're past the research stage (courtesy of $billions and years of work from the gov't) and already for practical purposes entering the commercialization stage. That said, USU is not the world's greatest business, and truly last week there were other stocks that you should have been buying, even if it meant selling USU. If Deswell hits 6 again, or if New Holland hits 9 1/2 , or if Midway hits 9 1/4, well I won't be holding onto my USU at 16 or even 14 - it's not for margined accounts, and if stocks get down that cheap again then I'll go on margin to buy them up just like I did last week. I'm back off margin now, but when you have companies trading at 1.5X earnings net of cash and debt with 15% dividends, well I'm not gonna feel like I'm risking money by borrowing at 7-8% to buy them. Heck, I'd LBO them if could. Good investing, Mike

To: Terrapin who wrote (5156)	10/18/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78815

I was not pleased at all with USEC's announcement in its first conference call that it will fall short by 40 cents a share its first year. But they reiterated that the dividend will still be $1.10 and that much of the shortfall is of a one-time nature. I think more important than the financial loss was the loss of credibility. Management really annoyed institutional investors and sellside analysts by waiting until the quarterly announcement to admit to a signficant problem that they have known about for three months. You should take comfort in the fact that the stock held at a level around the offering price. You won't find many IPOs that blow their first quarter and only drop 10%. I think many investors already understand there is something special here. That said, the economics are virtually the same as they were before. What changed is investor psychology. I bought a good story that nobody understands and figured that one by one investors would jump aboard. Now the first thing a new investor is going to see is a major earnings disappointment and a lot of excuses. I have no intention of selling my shares, but the chance of a quick payoff is virtually shot. The dividend allows me to live with that and wait for the 2-3 year payoff while collecting a big premium to a bond return. And Mike, that Deswell thing looks unbelievably cheap. I was just doing the "what's wrong with this picture" analysis. All I can find is that they are HQed in Hong Kong. I guess an Asian company now is about as popular as Hillary Clinton at a Fallwell rally. Is there some other big issue out there that should concern me? Does it really matter that they are in Asia - except of course, their costs have fallen. The company has no debt, so its not like they are some Korean conglomerate or Japanese bank tottering on the edge of bankruptcy. And their product does not seem particularly high-tech. So you tell me, what's wrong with this picture? I see the bull case - if you really want to convince me, tell me what people are so scared of. Jim