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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (31889)	10/18/1998 11:29:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

This has me scared: techstocks.com This seems like irrational exuberance to me.

To: donald sew who wrote (31889)	10/18/1998 11:36:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Don, I also am not a fundamentalist, there's just too much to weight and I'm not so sure how to assign particular weighted values to each tidbit of fundamental input. However, I fully believe that the charts show everything I need to know about the markets, and the charts give clear indications before the fundamentals ever hit the streets. I've seen that time and time again over the years and this is how I've played it. I agree that earnings will be disappointing, but I also suspect that the worst is already factored into market price and anything better than the worst will be welcomed by a rally. There is a yin/yang phenomenon operating in the markets, the markets are always looking for the right price and continues to over price and under price in its perpetual pursuit of that elusive item. GZ

To: donald sew who wrote (31889)	10/18/1998 11:01:00 PM
From: manohar kanuri	Respond to of 94695

Hi Donald, Jumping right in.... >>>>>What happens if CHINA devalues, is that already incorporated into the market.>>>>>> China HAS devalued. Or, the yen has gone through the roof, which amounts to the same thing. The issue of devaluation was always in terms of China losing competitiveness to the other Asian currencies, especially Japan. With the yen at 150 Chinese devaluation would have come sooner rather than later. With the yen under 120, the picture changes completely. The important question is if the yen move below 120 is going to stick for some length of time. I think it will. >>>>Otherwise there are much more negative fundamentals in the world economy than positives, at least for now.>>>> I'm looking at it as there are fewer negatives today than there were three/four weeks ago. Interest rates across Asia are falling, lower rates in US/Euroland. Brazil is getting its act together in a hurry, and something tells me we won't see any currencies under attack for some time to come. As for earnings, you might even see them slip next quarter (or two), but I think the case for a rapid rebound by H2 '99 exists. If we don't see 6500 in the meantime. At a basic level I'm basing that on the answer to the question - how many big economies (OECD + Brazil + China + odds and ends) are on the verge of mending, changing tack; and how many sliding back further or nearing the brink of collapse? Markets have already priced in bad numbers for most economies, with a biggish chunk for Brazil. Now what? I doubt there is a big bank failure coming soon to a screen near you. mano