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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (31901)	10/18/1998 12:22:00 PM
From: Temple Williams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

If you think E-Wave is a crock, you can just skip the goobledegook in the next sentence and skim the rest of this stuff. Or skip it altogether. My Preferred Count right now (starting at my miniscule degree on the 2-min chart and going up thru the 6-min, 18-min, 50-min, 2.5-hr, daily, weekly and monthly charts) puts us in "c" of "d" of "5" of "III" of "C" of "B" of "A" of "A" ... this last degree is the Intermediate Degree. For practical trading purposes, we are completing a Third Wave (the "III" of "C"). Third waves can always extend, and although I originally did not think this one would, I am starting to think it might. If Monday moves powerfully higher, then the extension has obviously occurred. I will just ratchet the wave structure of my Preferred Count up by the extension distance. With no extension, I currently see the S&P Cash Index topping out around 1150.00 Cash SPX a week from Monday. I do not believe we will make any new highs. I think the wounded bulls who sold the bottoms during the 2nd week of October, or last week just prior to the rate-related rocket ... these folks will NOT come back into the market during this rise. They will not easily admit they were wrong to get out. And the permabulls who rode the bear down and are still strapped into the saddle, wiping the sweat from their collective foreheads ... they are going to "get a second chance" to sell ... and I believe they will take it this time. Which means that we will arrive at the top of the mountain, and a great silence will fall upon the market ... and everyone will start to look for the next buyer and see ... a void, a vacuum ... lots of product ... not so many buyers. It probably will NOT be like falling off a cliff, but the slide may occur with relentless agony throughout November, December and January. And it might take us below 800 Cash SPX before a major reversal in this Bear Market occurs in late January, 1999. Of course, a Bullish Count is still there on my list of "maybes" ... but it's way down the list of "most likely" roadmaps. It's in a coma. It will take a lot of positive action to get it off the iron lung and heart machine, and even more to have it climb back into "next most likely" position. Which brings me my current Alternate Count. I do not believe in a Contrarian view of the market as much as an Elitist view. Don't get me wrong. I myself don't care much one way or another about being an Elitist. But I think the market does care. Here's what I mean. The market continually tries -- at least at important moments -- to benefit the fewest number of people, giving them the most amount of dollars. The same old stuff: 10% of the people make 90% of the money. Just like life. Financial elitism. Power elitism. Right or wrong, it's how it works. So when I look at a specific trade, or a potential trend, one of the questions I always ask is: "Will this keep joy and happiness away from the maximum number of traders, benefiting those few who are the winners ... the 10%?" If the answer is "Yes" ... then that may be a good trade or opinion. My Alternate Count meets this test better than the Preferred Count. It remains the Alternate because of some structural limitations. But if the market starts heading lower on Monday, instead of higher, it won't take much to get me to jump on the Alternate Count. It's got a lot of "elitism" going for it. The Alternate Count does not move much higher than 1060.00 Cash SPX before turning south to a third retest of the lows in the 920.00 Cash SPX area. It forms an "A-B-C-D-E" horizontal triangle in the "B" of the larger "A-B-C" market failure. After that, it does pretty much what the Preferred does in November, December and January. It heads for 800 Cash SPX. It just shakes the tree a lot harder before doing it, throwing confused traders off the juiciest branches with the sweetest fruit. If you want to rummage around in the Member's site of Temple's Ewave for a day, it's open for a free peak until around midnight tonight, Sunday, October 18 (using a username and password of ... ewave ...) at skansearch.com ... and the free site is always open at skansearch.com ... and the daily diary of trading is always available through the dateline links in the left-hand column of the trade results chart at skansearch.com Trade safe. Trade great.