To: Jerry Olson who wrote (17149 ) 10/18/1998 7:16:00 PM From: Teddy Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 120523
Hey O Jerry, i've been reading you for 9+ months since Truffie told me how smart you are.... ok, now (since i turned 15 yesterday) i'm confused: Is the surprize rate cut part of a LTCM rescue plan? (cutting 45 min before the close Thursday before exp seems funny to me, and i don't usually believe manipulation stories) Are big banks now safe? Is everything now going to be ok or will it blow up in the next couple of weeks? What do you think of this snip?:Wrong! Tactics and Strategies: A Rate-Cut Game Plan By James J. Cramer 10/18/98 2:00 PM ET You just woke up from a 72-hour nap. You missed the Fed's magnificent ease. You see the airlines and chemicals and papers and financials have just had monumental moves. Is it too late? Should you just go back to sleep? Every fund manager in the country is faced with this dilemma, particularly those who will now be inundated with cash that had been piling in from the sidelines. Heck, big money just came out last week from the market. I have no doubt that this rally will bring in huge amounts of money. Especially because short rates are headed down dramatically and will not offer that terrific return that they have been. So what can you do? I like to buy stocks with intact fundamentals that have some cyclicality, so when the Fed restarts the economy with its series of eases, I will get a nice bump. That brings me back to technology, which does better with a weak dollar that comes from rate cuts, and may do better with more confidence in the system. Any cyclical company that is the low-cost producer of something that can be shipped overseas interests me. So do the drillers, although their move Friday took away some of the upside. And every savings and loan intrigues me because with each ease, I get an immediate number bump. Unlike the other groups, the savings and loans are hated. The analysts hate them. The hedge funds hate them. They were being downgraded this week. The swirl of prepayments has damaged them severely, and the funds that invest in them are all kicking them out because their performance is so bad. And the insiders are buying like crazy. Get the insider buying runs. See which ones are being accumulated. They are your best bets. What doesn't work? If you think the Fed is going to ease aggressively, as I do, the drugs don't work. At all. Nor do the foods. If they rally, it will only be because the economy is even worse than we thought, but I just think the Fed will simply ease more aggressively, making these painful to own.... Jerry, in plan words, what can be bought? Thanks