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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: e. boolean who wrote (22127)	10/19/1998 12:35:00 AM
From: MrLuckyman	Respond to of 164687

This post on Yahoo sure seems like a feasible scenario to me. Message 25124 of 25125 Reply Value of the dollar is now the key. DoTheNumbers Oct 19 1998 12:23AM EDT The rising dollar/yen coupled with credit crunch has squashed US exports. Nobody in the world is buying anything except in N. America and W. Europe. Now the sudden crash of the dollar, excerbated by fed cuts (notice), slams the door on the only short-term path to world rebound--Japan cannot export out of its slump because they are losing pricing advantage in the U.S. At the same time the "no sign of inflation" story is about to crack in a hurry because import prices are going to stop crumbling and start soaring. Unless the dollar snaps back, before the year is out I expect we will see something really bizarre: stagflation in the U.S. against a backdrop of asset-deflation globally. But first, there is an election in early November that must be sheltered by delaying anything dramatically negative. The most likley time for a big crash, I believe is mid-Nov. The bigger the current sucker-rally becomes, the more devastating the drop will be. As for AMZN, it seems to panic whenever the Dow does and will be especially vulnerable if the package delivery-guys seem headed for a pre-Christmas strike. Also, aversion to risk in the credit market seems to slam the door on any more financing for AMZN. The only thing that can keep the quotes up is over-committed shorts getting squeezed from time to time.