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To: Bill Boy who wrote (55755)	10/18/1998 5:55:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 58727

Good analysis Bill... The market has always been a moving target... The key at this time is the lowering of interest rates... We've had a stealth BEAR market... Many people have trouble accepting that we've experienced the BEAR... Many people will now have trouble accepting that we may have turned the corner... Markets usually discount 6 months in advance... So, we may have seen the worst... Even though we may think we are in the middle of a worldwide economic firestorm, the market may now be looking beyond this when the recovery starts taking place... Jim

To: Bill Boy who wrote (55755)	10/18/1998 7:58:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

bill- my thoughts exactly. i think most are now more concerned (i know i am) with the supply of money and not the cost. the growth in M1 and (i think) in M2 has been high recently, and it doesnt seem like enough. what has me really on edge is the growth in property values. when all the liquidity dries up, and no one can afford to buy overpriced property, we will start seeing real problems with default on mortgages. this will open up a new can of worms in the mortgage backed securities area. so, what if we print enough money to meet the demand? we limp along a few more months before we enter a recessionary period. why? steadily devaluing the dollar with rate cuts and increases in M1 and M2 creates inflation in the US. it also makes the yen and mark very valuable and trade with the two will slow way down. i dont know...this may all be really stupid speculation. but i feel pretty confident that rate cuts are nothing more than a way for the big banks to reliquify before it all starts to fall apart. good luck to all, trey