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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.Prazeres who wrote (31954)	10/18/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 94695

Hi Paulo: As I noted, there are bear markets in several indices. However, there has not been a bear market in the DJI, INX, or OEX to date using my methods. These indices have held up. I have cut the markets into indices for easy reference to the various sectors. My definition of a bear market is that suggested by Dow Theory. Generally, three moves in a bear market. Those are evident in the OSX, SOX, TRAN, RUT, etc. However, we are not quite there in the major indices--DJI, INX, and OEX. To identify bear markets in progress, I wait for the first leg followed by a recovery of about 50 percent but less that 100 percent of the initial decline before the second leg moves to new lows. Once the new lows are reached then I label it as a bear market. The DJI has not done that yet; the INX and OEX may have put in new lows in the second leg but they very quickly moved up. Other people use various standards for bear markets, 20, 25 percent declines etc. If we look at the Willshire Index, I think it went from 10,300 to 8,300. That would be slightly less than 20 percent. However, my numbers may be slightly off. If we encounter a classic bear market, such as the 1973-74 bear market which had the three classic down-legs, we will all know that it was a bear market because SI will not be here. Not many people will want to talk about stocks after they had their money, hearts, and souls taken from them. The only interest I have in whether something is called a bear market is the expectation of a third leg which would be nice to catch. I guess I would not even need the term bear market.