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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (18285)	10/19/1998 9:37:00 AM
From: j_b	Respond to of 77397

<<CSCO may run into some tough times next qtr, many reasons: 1. Recent downgrade>> Are you implying that a stock analyst's downgrade may somehow affect the profitability of a company? I doubt many buying decisions are based on current analyst EPS estimates. <<2. Startups Extreme, Foundry, Packet Engines are taking some mkt share away from CAT5000 Enterprise line>> Are they winning customers or actually taking market share? There are so many customers out there, that it seems unlikely to me that CSCO has not also been winning new customers. That being the case, there is no reason to think they are actualy losing market share, even if some customers were to choose a competitors product over CSCO's. <<3. ASND 550 and FORE ASX4000 have much better performance and scalability compared to old BPXs. Recently, ASND and FORE had won many large contracts but for csco, there were no recent announcements for BPXs.>> What has CSCO done to address this? re they standing still while the competition leapfrogs over them? If you were a large compnay whose business was dependent on the routers you purchased, who would you buy from - a startup with no track record and questionable future, or the world leader with a known product quality and reliability, service, and proven upgrade path? As for the announcements, startups announce every single contract they get signed, wher established manufacturers such as CSCO do not. The lack of announcements means very little. These same points would also apply to your point 4. Point 5 regarding softness in Asia is well taken, but will probably be offset by increased business in the U.S. as more companies try to increase their capabilities to move to the internet. Also, the Asian flu has already been factored into everyone's estimates for the next year. Point 6 regarding competition by well-funded companies such as LU is also valid, at least to some degree. Lucent has a reputation for innovation, but not for service. It will take them some time to overcome CSCO's lead in that area, as well as the entrenched name recognition that CSCO has in the router area. No one ever thought that there would be no competition, or that there would be no bumps in the road. That doesn't in any way imply that CSCO will stand still while the competition moves ahead. All you have pointed out is that other people are in the same market as CSCO. That has always been the case, and they have always managed to outlast the competition or to outperform the competition. Why do you feel that the situation you describe is any different from the situation a year ago?

To: jach who wrote (18285)	10/19/1998 2:51:00 PM
From: Bong Lewis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

i agree with you jack. the only thing i worry about cisco is its current valuation. it must do everything right; otherwise, it will be punished. that's why i only bought some at 47. the good thing is it is up now. if it falls to 40 or below, it's my wish. i challenge the market to drop further so I can buy some more KO, GE, BMY, PFE, CSCO, PG, NT and LU. I didnt buy them enough since I didnt know how bad the market would drop. I dont need to make money right now. I am not on margin. When people were scare the hell off, that time I was in.