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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (25489)	10/18/1998 11:38:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

PV, RE:Do you have any other rationale that AMAT has been holding up? It really has amazed me since the BTB # will probably be lower than 96. What do you think of the statistical high side of $101 for AMAT during the next up cycle based on the data I posted? I'm baffled that the funds/institutions have decided to hold on so long in the face of such industry weakness, the question is how much longer will they hold? Will they hold thru year end, and possibly take a loss, or are they waiting for end of year announcement. What is the likelihood that they will take their departure with this most recent run up and erase their losses from Aug-now going into EOY accounting time? $101, well maybe if lots of new fabs are built which will need large quantities of new state-of-the-art 300mm equipment. Remember, there are new fabs closing down which will be adding slightly used equipment into the market at <$0.50 on the dollar which will compete with potential new sales of equipment to fabs that need upgrades and may be expanding their production lines. May take a couple of years to see this price unless someone buys out AMAT at a premium before then <G>. Just my opinion, BB