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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patrick tang who wrote (15754)	10/19/1998 2:52:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Patrick: If management really had some balls, I would love to see a merger with VLSI. I certainly hope that the deal wasn't queered on the LSI side. The synergies there are superb. With respect to cutting R&D because of EDA problems, then there might be some sort of capitulation by Wilf. Clearly, he is very tied into the EDA community, so your thoughts make a lot of sense. I am not one bit emotional about my losses. I don't like them, but I have learned to love losses as part of making profits. Moreover, your writing correlates directly with my writing. But I feel that it is also fair to challenge the assumptions of someone whose optimistic figures don't even match the optimistic projections of a management that has been too optimistic in the past. Your scenario of the Koreans overinvesting is precisely what led me to purchase LSI in Feb and May. Clearly, I was premature in my investment. Now is a superior time to be investing in the company, although with the US economy, potentially tanking, it is possible that LSI could go down into the high single digits, in which case, any serious semi investor should be shot for not adding some LSI to his portfolio.

To: patrick tang who wrote (15754)	10/19/1998 3:07:00 PM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 25814

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of this slump is that there has never been anything like it in the semi business--a two generation slump. Is it not also possible that the next upcycle will be even more dramatic than anything in the past? In the absence of sufficient EDA tools for much of the cutting edge design, is it not possible that further investment that might have come in at a upcycle period will be dissuaded to such an extent that there will be serious long term shortages? My point is that the forward look of a true semi player such as yourself must incorporate estimates of .25 and .18 capacity versus product demand, because this is where the shortages will most likely occur. It is my hope that Shane, yourself, and others would lend their talents, rather than waste time putting together numbers for the "Fantasy Semi League".

To: patrick tang who wrote (15754)	10/19/1998 5:57:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 25814

Feel like gambling a little but don't want too much risk - go for LSI, probably will return 5x to 6x from where it is today, downside 2x. [...] Yes, ride it on the way up, ride it on the way down. I agree with you. Here is my sell discipline for LSI (over the next 3 to 4 years) : @ 2 times sales i.e. 27, sell 20% @ 3 times sales i.e. 40, sell 20% @ 4 times sales i.e. 54, sell 20% @ 5 times sales i.e. 67, sell 20% Average selling price : 46.75 For the remaining 20%, keep it and ride it up all the way to 100 before selling it all (for an overall average price of 57.40) Or, keep it and ride it down all the way to... (??) [Most probably it will be the latter :-)] Dipy.