To: Walter Morton who wrote (1091 ) 10/19/1998 5:36:00 PM From: Enam Luf Respond to of 3086
Walter, IMHO, there were several reasons encryption companies took a beating: 1. Small caps, especially small cap techs, all took a beating during this time period. Many stocks are still more than 50% off their year highs. This is largely the result of a period of overactive trading and speculation in unproven, unprofitable companies. After the "hype" wore off, many investors have turned a cold shoulder to such speculative plays, unless the numbers and growth are enough to warrant confidence. It looks like the era of the "pump and dump" has come to an end, or at least subsided. I think many investors who got burned aren't likely to show up to the small cap market with their money anytime soon. 2. There is a general fear that the BIG GUNS(MSFT, INTC, CSCO, etc) of the tech world are going to takeover in the security industry by integrating security into their products. This basically means that if your company does not control the (or any of the) standards, or has insignificant market share, and lacks oems, partnerships, development agreements (etc) with the large software and networking companies, you stand little chance of getting anywhere in the long run. 3. As it stands, my take on JAWZ is that the market it appeals to is fairly limited. I would like to see L5 get some recognition, or see some attempt by the company to promote their products integration into the emerging security standards. This refers to my earlier question of at what market is JAWZ leaning towards.. The market as a whole will be very large, but it is pretty segmented. 4. The face of the security industry is changing, with new technologies and standards emerging as we speak. The increased risks inherent in such an environment creates a tough market for investors. 5. Liquidity. The liquidity in these markets has dried up somewhat, making it difficult to move large quantities of shares without affecting the stock prices. I do think that some of the security companies could be poised for a rebound in the coming months, but only those who can back up their percieved potential with hard numbers. Enam