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Pastimes : John Dessauer's Investors World -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Ralph C. Cinque who wrote (1706)10/19/1998 4:27:00 PM
From: carl a. mehr  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 2346
 
Ralph,

Thanks for you comments - much appreciated. There is a lot of suffering out there, so I am more convinced than ever to: Go with the leaders of growing sectors. INTC, MSFT, CSCO are my largest holdings. I think that I need a leader in tele-communications (cell phones), but I am not sure which one to buy.

Regards,
humble carl



To: Ralph C. Cinque who wrote (1706)10/20/1998 12:59:00 AM
From: DWB  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 2346
 
Unlike Ralph, I have no desire to lead a campaign of shortsightedness... or lead a campaign of any kind whatsoever... so while some may bluster about incompetence, and paint things as "disastrous", a more reasonable view might be in order. JD has:

1. Made some bad picks... nobody is perfect. Yes, he recommended SME, CPPKY, FLC which have tanked, but for every one of those, I can point to more than enough to compensate in winners. This on top of the fact that any reasonable investor, should know that a balanced portfolio doesn't bet too heavily on any one or two stocks... it's called diversification. Even if JD recommended SME on the way down, and you bought some, you should have been smart enough to set a limit to how much you would own at any given time. It's called asset allocation, and if you can't understand it, give Vanguard a call now.

2. Yes, JD has recommended stocks at their peaks... as well as while they were rising. To point out that he recommended HLT at 33, and ignore that he also recommended it as BLY at $8 is self serving. Yes, he recommended BFT at 31, as well as in the single digits. Once again, set limits, and know what you are getting into. The "he said buy at the high" argument also ignores the possibility of future increases, but then again, that would weaken the argument further.

3. JD said to buy companies right before earnings announcements or warnings... true. Amazing how the times he told us to buy AHO or CCI, or GLX, or SEIC, or CCR aren't remembered... oh right... that makes the argument weaker... wouldn't want to do that. Everyone is entitled to a mistake now and then... Wilf Corrigan bought millions of LSI in the low 20's before they warned... guess he's incompetent too...

4. Completely misjudged the Asian crisis and impact... to an extent. What JD misjudged was the level of panic and hysteria that the buyers and sellers injected into the market. However, he has still been able to peg the US economy, and the trend of inflation and interest rates, which are more important to me than the temporary Asian induced dip.

5. Misjudged the Cendant fiasco... debatable. While the extent of the fraud within Cendant caught everyone off guard, it doesn't discount the earnings potential or the relative value of the remaining company assets. If you bought in too soon, you made the decision to buy into a very uncertain situation, and WS is notorious for it's dislike of uncertainty. Again, unless your investment horizon is shorter than 12 months, will you even notice the dip? Unless you bought high and sold low (Ralph) they are just paper losses at this point, and ones that you'll probably recoup in the very near term.

Ralph may work in the health care industry, but he's got a lot to learn about the investing industry. News flash number 1... stocks don't always go up in an unending stream of increases... News flash number 2... occasionally good stocks go down, creating a golden opportunity to buy them at artificially depressed prices. If one is able to keep his/her head, this is actually a good thing when viewed in hindsight. Unfortunately, many run around screaming about lawsuits, when they should be making the most of the situation.

Folks, you can do whatever you want with your remaining subscriptions... despite the pablum Ralph is spewing. I for one feel that JD has pointed me to a great number of stocks that have done quite well over the time, and given the conditions. I also feel that many of those that have underperformed will outperform if I give them the time to do so. Lastly, I don't obsess over stocks that don't act the way I expected, but acknowledge that you can't pick all winners all the time. JD is having a tough year, but then again, so are almost 99% of the analysts out there.

In the spirit of equality, you'll see this message as often as Ralph's shows up...

DWB



To: Ralph C. Cinque who wrote (1706)10/23/1998 8:00:00 AM
From: Makahadan  Respond to of 2346
 
I totally agree with Mr. Cinque's efforts to diss Dessauer.
I too have been harmed by following Dessauer's advice. Of course I must take responsibility for all my choices, and I do so.
But that does not mean that one should not warn of the source of bad info, particularly when it is an arrogant, never apologizing,
jerk who is making millions while many of his subcribers lose a fortune on CD, HLT, LSI, CPPKY, etc. etc.

Dessauer May Be Devastating To Your Financial Health.
His newsletter should be named Financial Whirl.

All comments IMHO.