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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (14677)	10/19/1998 5:10:00 PM
From: Roger A. Babb	Respond to of 18691

cadet, I agree with you that the crash and bottom will both be in 1999. I think we will see 6000 in 1999. But I also think we will break 10000 early in year 2000 when the world continues to function in spite of y2k and the religous fanatics. The Roger's Long Picks thread will appear in mid 1999.

To: space cadet who wrote (14677)	10/19/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Every downturn will feel more scary, retesting 8000? I don't know that is the proper terminology anymore. The week we saw the last "bottom" the DOW went nowhere (I think it INCREASED every day that week) while the nazdaq dropped like a rock. These are dominated by the top stocks, ofcourse, and the big drop was mainly due to the fall of Dell and Cisco. Numerically, anyway. Psychologically the smaller caps were also tossed away and beaten to such low levels, they may be more stable even after running 30% up. Anyway, if your question refers to indexes my answer won't apply, I think small stocks can form a base and be steady even while the big caps get hammered. If we got a 40% cut on the DOW those would still be valued about 50% over values in smaller caps. For example, compare the conglomerates ALD and GY. That's how I'm positioned, "market neutral" overall and hoping for a slow decay of the big-cap premium. Much of today's fashion involves assigning PE based on growth rate. An imponderable, at best! Be a little less ambitious and tryplain old cash flow at no growth, you find value (provided nothing happens to the cash flow). When valuation is based on growth the surprises are frequent and uncomfortable. Greg

To: space cadet who wrote (14677)	10/19/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Respond to of 18691

Not sure about overall market, but if small caps rally another 2-3% then they'll break their 50 day moving average (Russel 2000). You'll then hear loads of "experts" predicting a small cap rally (which of course has already been happening). I think the Russel can gain another 50 pts or 14% without too much resistance. Almost all my long money is is beaten down small caps. Nothing short yet, but after earnings season there will be many good canidates. Look for people to take gains in profitable stocks to offset tax losses.

To: space cadet who wrote (14677)	10/19/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: Greg Jung	Respond to of 18691

More to the point of your question, most general indeces and important components are hovering near the 200 dma. 1080 is level on S&P, 1670 on Nazaq, 8500 on dow? We're just a 1-day rally from what I expect to be a turnabout. If supertuesday is bloody we may have a longer time to reach there (I expect all banks to rally back to current levels before its all over) If supertuesday goes ok I think we may have a brief profit-taking followed by some reality checks. At which point the gloom may return. It has been two weeks now - due for a refill. Greg