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To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (22282)	10/19/1998 9:36:00 PM
From: JBL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Banks are tightening credit much faster and much more dramatically than what Greenspan had been anticipating, and that's why he could not wait until the next FOMC. His goal right now is to control the impact of the developping credit crunch, and to avert a meltdown in financial markets. The best case scenario does not warrant a Dow at these levels. Most Wall Street analysts will keep lying to themselves and refuse to face the truth. Their living depends on the continuation of this bull market and this affects their judgment.

To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (22282)	10/19/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>>by what measure did the bear market last more than a year when the markets were at their highs in May and again as recently as July The cumulative advance/decline line. Starting in early/mid 1997, the number of stocks declining started outnumbering the stocks advancing, and it became progressively worse throughout the 15 months, culminating in this recent panic that finally hit the big-capitalization leadership. The averages are capitalization-weighted, so the big stocks declining really made headlines. It's interesting that the Internet stocks started their stunning advance about the time that the broad market topped. I think that is due to the disinflationary nature of the decline which supported valuations, and the fact that these companies are so new and growing so fast that they had nothing to lose during this cycle.