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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: xcr600 who wrote (14689)	10/19/1998 10:28:00 PM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 18691

No. In the week to the Oct 9th, the shorts became overly optimistic, that was a week where just everthing was sold. I saw it when "value stocks" like CSCO took their dive. In hindsight, it's easy to say, that was an intermediate bottom. Others on the pinks threads (which was top ranked in that days on SI), and myself had warned to take some money from the table - as early as Oct 8th, though. Some really did cover, as financials - most of them in the single digits or even beyond 5 didn't carry much residual value and said BKs didn't take place. So it got difficult to find new shorts as the dogs were beaten down that far and what remained with value were the internuts but most of the people abstain from shorting them. The earnings are a different story. Personally I was surprised by a) strong earning in the financial sector, esp. the big banks and b) the strong market reaction on bad earning like MER. On the day MER published their q loss along with sound job cuts, it began its rise, along with COF or PVN. I am sure, it needs only some time to create new short opportunities, either from the chart, where bad fundamentals did not change (like BTIM over 11, or DTLN. Or where the business may spell trouble in the near future. I consider the satellite sector as overvalued but it will take time until the situation unfolds. The projected earnings of co's now already rich valued and still in development phase won't grow that fast, and the possibilities of further rate cuts - easing the debt burden, are diminishing. But nothing will be immediate and in the short run, prices will be higher even in stocks carrying little residual value (like FIBR, ABTE, CYPH, TAVA, TRBO) moving them up over five for a short moment. The main task is to distinguish them from beaten down stocks which may carry some future value (consider CIEN, AFCI, PMTC or some in the semiconductor industry). C.