Syria Stands Firm Against Turkey
Syrian Information Minister Mohammad Salman reiterated over the
weekend his country's territorial claim on a province that was
ceded to Turkey half a century ago. While territorial disputes
are part and parcel of the region, Damascus chose a particularly
provocative moment to reiterate its claim. In the past several
weeks tension has been building between Syria and Turkey over
several issues, with Turkey threatening to use military force in
response to Syria's support of Kurdish rebels. With a total
fighting force of approximately 700,000 men, Turkey greatly
outnumbers its Syrian neighbor. Turkey is also facing a looming
showdown with Greece over the deployment of Russian surface-to-
air missiles to a Greek Cypriot airbase. Turkey therefore has
reason to fear, and to take preemptive action against, the
formation of a second front against Greek ally Syria. Yet,
facing a militarily superior Turkey, which has as many reasons
for action as for restraint, Syria has not only continued to
support the Kurds, but has also reiterated its territorial claim
to the Alexandretta province. Such defiance suggests that Syria
is confident it can rely on additional military support from one
or more countries.
Tension has been building all summer between Turkey and its
neighbors. In addition to its showdown with Syria, Turkey is
involved in a dispute with Greece over Cyprus. Greece built an
airbase on Greek-Cypriot controlled southern Cyprus in order to
counter the threat posed to Greek-Cypriots by the 35,000 Turkish
troops that control the northern third of Cyprus. Greece is also
scheduled to take delivery of 48 Russian-made S300 surface-to-air
missiles (SAM) that will be deployed at the Paphos Air Base on
Cyprus. Ankara considers these missiles a direct threat to their
territory since they are capable of reaching targets over the
Turkish mainland. Turkey has threatened to prevent the
deployment of the S300 missiles on Cyprus by whatever means
necessary, including military intervention. Turkish action would
draw a Greek response, possibly leading to war between the two
NATO members and long-time rivals.
As Greece and Syria enjoy very close ties, Turkey could also find
itself in a two front war. Turkey has worked to counter this
alliance by broadening and strengthening ties with Israel,
thereby posing Syria with the possibility of its own two-front
war. Turkey has also attempted to improve relations with Jordan
and Iraq. While Syria has had the support of Greece for some
time now, its recent stand against Turkish threats and its
renewed claim on Alexandretta suggest that either Syria is
confident Turkey won't act or another player has joined the anti-
Turkish alliance. The balance of power in the region looks to be
shifting against Turkey.
The most likely candidate is Iran. An Iranian military
delegation met with Greek Defense Minister Akis Tsokhatzopoulos
on October 5, 1998 in Athens to deliver a message from Iranian
Defense Minister Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani. While the contents
of the message were not disclosed by either country, it is known
that the representatives of the two countries discussed bilateral
ties, regional issues, and matters of mutual interest.
Interestingly enough, while the military representatives were
meeting, Greek government spokesman Dimitris Reppas is quoted as
saying that a confrontation between Turkey and Syria could have
tragic results. According to Reppas, "Sources of tensions are
being created in our region. We will have to deal with these
sources from their birth, because they may develop out of control
and we will be led to tragic results."
Iran has, however, joined Egypt in attempting to mediate the
Turkish-Syrian confrontation. Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal
Kharrazi has visited Damascus and Ankara, and on October 14,
Iran's Ambassador Turkey Mohammad Hussein Lavasani delivered a
letter from Iranian President Mohammad Khatami to Turkish
President Suleyman Demirel, expressing Iran's concern over the
confrontation and desire to help settle the dispute. On October
15, Turkish Ambassador to Iran Sencar Ozsoy thanked Iran for its
efforts and said there had been improvements in Ankara-Damascus
relations. But Iranian neutrality slipped slightly on October
18, when Iranian women's groups issued a statement condemning
Turkey for its ban on Islamic dress for women attending
universities. And at a meeting with Syrian Prime Minister
Mahmoud Az-Zoubi in Damascus on October 19, Iran's Housing and
Urban Development Minister stressed Tehran's desire for expanding
ties with Damascus.
Despite Iran's historically close ties with Syria, and its new
and growing friendship with Greece, evidence is scant of an
Iranian guarantee for Syrian security. What, after all, is
Iran's motive? First there is the historical enmity and
competition between Iran and Turkey, both of whom aspire to
regional hegemony. But on a more current level, Turkey has
facilitated the illegal export of Iraqi oil, threatening OPEC
attempts to raise oil prices and so impacting Iranian revenues.
Iran is also wary of Turkey's presence in northern Iraq and of
Ankara's recent moves to improve and strengthen relations with
Baghdad. Also, coincidentally, or perhaps not, the province that
Syria laid claim to again this week is adjacent to the terminal
for a pipeline that has been proposed for carrying oil from the
Caspian Sea.
The United States is the primary supporter of this pipeline,
which would extend from Baku, Azerbaijan to Ceyhan, Turkey. The
actual route of the pipeline has been the subject of much debate
and appears to be in doubt. However, U.S. Deputy Secretary of
State Strobe Talbott responded to doubts about the project by
saying that "our plans and our policy continue to feature the
prospect for a pipeline running through Baku to Ceyhan." Critics
of the Baku-Ceyhan route charge that it is more expensive and a
much longer route than the other alternatives. The cheapest and
shortest of the alternate routes being discussed would go through
Iran.
While the U.S. State Department has said that the Iranian route
is not an option, U.S. policy in the region and toward Iran in
particular has recently been inconsistent at best. A final
decision on the exact route of the pipeline is to be announced
later this month. Syrian-Turkish conflict near Ceyhan would
undoubtedly serve to undermine support for the Baku-Ceyhan
pipeline, which is already considered too expensive by corporate
investors in the project. As alternative routes through Georgia,
Chechnya, and Afghanistan are also threatened by conflict, border
strife in Turkey may make increase support for the Iranian route.
Syrian Information Minister Salman told Qatari newspaper that
"Syria will never give up its rights... Alexandretta is a
national issue on which no concession can be made." In view of
relative military might, Salman's statement is the equivalent of
a 90-pound weakling demanding that the bully return his lunch
money. Except in this case it would appear that the 90-pound
weakling has a Persian giant backing him up. We don't expect a
Syrian invasion of Turkey to reclaim Alexandretta, but Syria is
apparently confident enough that Turkey won't attack that it can
afford to be belligerent. The upshot of this apparent Iranian
involvement is that Turkey continues to face a two front war
should it act against Greek Cyprus. Turkey has the choice of
foregoing an attack on the missiles, calling Syria's bluff, or
attempting to outflank Iran as well.
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