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To: Gottfried who wrote (7150)	10/20/1998 3:51:00 AM
From: Q.	Respond to of 10921

Orders down from $1.8 B at the peak to $0.48 B in September. It looks like orders nearly fell in half, Sept compared to June. Factor out the 3-month averaging, and I wonder if there were much of any orders at all last month. The SEMI announcement hints at a bottom, with the back end reporting a slight increase in orders. (People say that back end orders bottom first because they are capacity driven, and therefore they serve as a leading indicator for the front end.) With orders diminishing by a factor of two every few months, I certainly hope so.

To: Gottfried who wrote (7150)	10/20/1998 3:53:00 AM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

North American Semiconductor Equipment Industry Posts September 1998 Book-to-Bill Ratio of 0.57 MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 19, 1998--The North American semiconductor equipment industry posted a book-to-bill ratio of 0.57 for September 1998, it was reported by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). A book-to-bill of 0.57 means $57 in orders were received for each $100 worth of products shipped. Three-month average shipments in September 1998 were $839.4 billion. The figure is 16 percent below the August 1998 level, and is 42 percent below the September 1997. Three-month average bookings decreased in September 1998 to $476.4 million. The bookings figure is 16 percent below the August 1998 level, and 69 percent below the September 1997 level. "Total equipment orders of U.S. based suppliers continued to soften in September as expected. Naturally shipments are on the same slope. The ratio of bookings to orders, which has declined the three prior months, stabilized in September," said Dick Greene, principal analyst with SEMI. "A hint of good news is hidden in the back-end equipment data. Three month average order levels for back end equipment edged up four percent. Another uptick in October may be a leading indicator." The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average shipments. Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars. -0- T Month Shipments Bookings Book-to-Bill April 98 1,416.3 1,102.1 0.78 May 98 1,360.8 1,107.1 0.81 June 98 1,265.5 932.7 0.74 July 98 (final) 1,112.1 717.6 0.65 August 98 (revised) 995.1 568.0 0.57 Sept. 98 (preliminary) 839.4 476.4 0.57 T -0- The data contained in this release was compiled by the independent public accounting firm of Arthur Andersen LLP, without audit, from data submitted directly by the participants. SEMI and Arthur Andersen LLP can assume no responsibility for the accuracy of the underlying data. The data are contained in a monthly Express Report published by SEMI that tracks shipments and orders for equipment used to manufacture semiconductor devices, not shipments and orders of the chips themselves

To: Gottfried who wrote (7150)	10/20/1998 8:18:00 AM
From: Mason Barge	Respond to of 10921

SVGI this morning was listed as one of the 30 "worst rated" stocks by analysts, according to (I think) Zack's or First Call, in a WSJ article. I have to say, although I don't trust analysts' buy ratings, their sell ratings tend to me more accurate. In fact, someone did a study and found that to be true about a year ago.