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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (30925)10/20/1998 11:56:00 AM
From: Gameboy  Respond to of 95453
 
Slider, my opinion is that the October fall in oil prices is just a reaction to the weather related rise during September. At $13.50 the market has over-reacted on the downside and I would guess that the 'norm' for oil would be about $14 Brent or $15 American by the end of October, with a continuing rise at about $1/barrel per month. Of course, OPEC wanted $17 Brent by the end of October or they threatened further cuts.

OPEC has held fast on it's production cuts so far; witness the August import figures for the US:

biz.yahoo.com

Saudi Arabia August 42,189 July 48,814
Venezuela August 40,967 July 43,868
Mexico August 35,297 July 42,531
Canada August 38,691 July 41,475
Nigeria August 22,503 July 27,001
Angola August 13,073 July 17,077
Colombia August 11,060 July 7,092
Kuwait August 7,460 July 13,493
Iraq August 20,275 July 8,587
Norway August 8,064 July 9,629

Imports from all of the OPEC countries were down significantly and without Colombia and Iraq to fill the OPEC void, we might well have been looking at $17 Brent at the end of September.

Best of luck,

Steve