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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scotsman who wrote (11440)	10/20/1998 10:15:00 AM
From: Big Kahuna	Respond to of 74651

My point exactly. This would hurt a lot more if Microsoft were not worth as much as it currently is. While the stock might really be taken for a ride down (and I'm not saying it won't), in the long run, I don't see how it will really be bad for investors (long term ones anyway). Despite the arguments of all pro or anti Microsofters on this thread, the outcome won't really matter to Microsoft, only to the little companies trying to get by.

To: Scotsman who wrote (11440)	10/20/1998 10:20:00 AM
From: ToySoldier	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Scotsamn, In a limited view of the scenario that you describe you would be right, but you are ignoring countless other dynamics that will also play out that will negatively affect MSFT. If MSFT loses, many other factors can now take effect that will limit MSFT's ability to maintain a monopoly hold on the desktop as well as reduce their previously guarenteed successful expansion into another IT arena (like the browsers). If MSFT is found guilty and given a "slap on the wrist" that would mean that the government has proven in court that MSFT's ways are not acceptable. First off, this would likely trigger a large burst of new lawsuits against MSFT from companies that have been similarly treated by MSFT. Secondly, MSFT will lose a major business tool (strong arming their way into a new line of business) which ensured them success. They will now have to develop technology that is not inferior to the competition and gain marketshare based simply on those merits - or risk being pulled back into another anti-trust lawsuit. The government and the industry will be very closely scrutinizing MSFT's activities from here on in to make sure MSFT now plays fair. If MSFT is broken up, then not only do the above mentioned dynamics play out, but, MSFT also reduces the ability for it to integrate technologies between business lines. For example, if MSFT were broken up at the time of the beginning of the browser wars, the MSFT-OS company and the MSFT-Applications company (just a guess as to the break in business lines) would not easily be able to hide a Browser from company 2 getting "integrated" into the OS of company 1. That would be easy pickins for the DOJ to haul MSFT back into court. Again, all these factors force MSFT to play fair, and its this fair play that will limit MSFT's ability to maintain the dominance they now have - much less grow - until they figure out how to grow through superior technology and not through back-room strong arm monopolistic activities. Here is a final thought. Even if they come out of this long battle (like IBM did) with no punishments at all, they will still be a changed company. A lot of people said that IBM won the 12+ year battle against the Government and came out unscathed. BUT, they didnt actually come out unscathed at all! They had to change their practices and marketing strategies which forced them to play fair. As we all know, IBM has taken several years to come out as a new and stronger company, but not without taking some losses. If it weren't for the IBM-DOJ battle, who knows what our industry would look like now. IBM could now have been the leader of desktop OS and server OS and PC hardware technologies. The MSFTs, Intels, Novells may never have been able to become what they are today if IBM had not learned their lesson. Now its MSFT's turn to learn its lesson. So dont think that MSFT will come out of this unscathed or untouched. Your only fooling yourself! Toy

To: Scotsman who wrote (11440)	10/20/1998 12:40:00 PM
From: Mike Milde	Respond to of 74651

<< If they have to remove their explorer, again so what. They make Windows compatible systems,and the die is cast. That will not hurt them in the slightest. Once again a bump in the road. >> Bill Gates obviously understands the importance of tightly integrating the network and the OS. He's very late in the game though. Sun Microsystems has preached "the network is the computer" for decades. Tightly integrating the OS and the network is VERY important. The network is quickly becoming all that matters for the average user. If Microsoft builds an OS that doesn't allow the user to access the web, and if applications are written in a platform independent language, then where does Microsoft fit into the picture? Mike