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To: Cents who wrote (16804)	10/20/1998 12:36:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 18056

Wish I had answers. One more question -- do you think they decided to stage the cut or was the 2nd move a reactionary move?

To: Cents who wrote (16804)	10/20/1998 8:16:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Cents, I think the bullishness is coming from the "urgency" of Greenspan response and the fact that the street believes that two sequential easing moves by the FED's signal the end of bear moves (the rationale being that the FED's will be doing what is necessary to avoid a recession). Short term, however, I view today's action as negative, with a bunch of short term indicators turning quite bearish. We went from +1350 or so in the tick to close to -1000. The first is an extreme on its own (the highest on this rally so far), and the reversal looked "panicky" again. So, I expect retesting at least the 7800 before we see a resumption of the bull. Medium term, (till about mid to end of January) I think that the fed's will have their impact on quieting the markets, and still expect a "year end rally. I think they (the FED's) might even move again come November 17 (and speculations to this effect will, I believe, cause a better tone in the market early in November after the election). I for one, took a lot of stuff off the table, including some I recommended just recently, like XIRC (immediately after touching a new high), ASND, HAUP, and even some of my WFR (but I plan getting back into this one) and few other. Good luck everyone, I think the sea is getting rough for a week or two again (was not 8600 or so a 61% Fibonacci retracement?) Zeev

To: Cents who wrote (16804)	10/20/1998 8:48:00 PM
From: Wren	Respond to of 18056

Frankly, the urgency of the cut bothers me. It seems as though some major banks or investment bankers were in trouble, and relief couldn't wait. It is almost like the Long Term Capital rescue.

To: Cents who wrote (16804)	10/20/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

>> Why does this recent additional cut mark the bottom for the stock market as many analysts are saying? Most analysts are nothing more than salesmen selling a product - stocks. They are not in the business of giving reasoned advice based upon the historical evidence. I would argue that a cut in interest rates on the very day that the inflation hit a yearlong high and after the dollar had fallen around 15% against other major currencies in the past few weeks is a sign of panic on the part of the fed. What was so urgent that they couldn't wait for the next FMOC meeting? Why wait until the only thing trading was equities and equity futures the day before options expiry - manipulation? A panicking, manipulating fed is not the optimum indicator for long term investors to enter the market. Day traders, speculators and other professionals can play but investors should use this rally to head for the hills. Interest rates cuts are not necessarily bullish as most analysts often state - for example: From late 1929, to the end of 1930 the Fed cut the discount rate from 6% to 2% - nice cut for just over 1 year. At the end of 1931, the Fed got into the business of frantically buying government securities in an attempt to expand the money supply, with no success.