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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9066)10/20/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: md1derful  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 22640
 
Thread: Hellooo, anybody there??? (except Steve, of course) I'll even take a flame to get some action here...yo Fred, how 'bout a flame...any idea when we get the babies?? Do I dare say, tbr is becoming a boring stock...no way!! Go yankees, beat Padres. If no answer, then I'm going to write a poem.... Difference between Bill and Monica: Bill can't come clean and Monica can't clean..he he he



To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9066)10/20/1998 11:08:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy  Respond to of 22640
 
Brazil's Cardoso delays meeting over fiscal plan

Reuters, Tuesday, October 20, 1998 at 17:07

BRASILIA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Fernando
Henrique Cardoso has delayed until next week a meeting with
political leaders to discuss a hotly awaited austerity plan, a
spokeswoman for a pro-government political party said Tuesday.
Anxious financial markets had hoped to glean some details
as to how Brazil plans to tackle a raging economic crisis after
the meeting, previously scheduled for Wednesday.

Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service



To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9066)10/20/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy  Respond to of 22640
 
Brazil to announce fiscal measures next week

Reuters, Tuesday, October 20, 1998 at 18:03

BRASILIA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - The Brazilian government will
unveil its eagerly awaited austerity plan next week, a
spokesman for President Fernando Henrique Cardoso said Tuesday.
"The measures will be announced in the middle of next
week," spokesman Sergio Amaral told reporters at a daily
briefing.




To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9066)10/20/1998 11:12:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy  Respond to of 22640
 
Brazil's Cardoso finalizes hotly-awaited fiscal plan

Reuters, Tuesday, October 20, 1998 at 19:01

By Joelle Diderich
BRASILIA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Brazilian President Fernando
Henrique Cardoso met his finance minister on Tuesday to put the
finishing touches to a fiscal austerity plan seen as crucial to
prevent a currency devaluation.
Finance Minister Pedro Malan arrived at the president's
residence in mid-morning for an unofficial meeting, but the
presidential palace and finance ministry said no official
announcement was expected on Tuesday.
Nonetheless, Brazilian shares opened higher amid optimism
that Cardoso or Malan would present the outline of the
three-year fiscal adjustment plan to clear the way for a
financial aid package led by the International Monetary Fund.
"The general lines of the fiscal package should be
announced today, though the actual measures won't likely come
out until after elections," said Paulo de Sa, a fund manager at
Lloyds Asset Management.
Economists say Latin America's largest nation must urgently
tackle its bloated budget deficit, currently about 7 percent of
gross domestic product (GDP), to stem massive dollar outflows
and prevent a devaluation in the domestic currency, the real.
Local newspapers said Cardoso could announce on Tuesday
primary budget surplus targets for 1999 through 2001 as well as
total expected spending cuts and possible tax increases.
Brazil has already pledged to post a primary budget
surplus, excluding debt costs, of 2.5 percent to 3 percent of
GDP in 1999 as part of a series of measures to secure an
IMF-led loan.
But Cardoso was unlikely to detail harsh measures ahead of
second round voting in state gubernatorial races on Sunday, for
fear of upsetting the chances of key allies running for the
governorships of three of Brazil's most important states.
The support of state governors is seen as crucial to
implementing the measures contained in the plan, which must
save or raise at least $19.5 billion next year.
Government officials have so far agreed on three steps,
leading financial daily Gazeta Mercantil said on Tuesday.
Officials are said to favor a rise in the tax on financial
transactions to 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent, which economists
say would raise an extra $3.4 billion.
The government also plans to extend the deadline of an
existing Federal Stabilization Fund to the end of next year,
the newspaper said. The fund allows the federal government to
hold on to about $26 billion a year in receipts earmarked by
the constitution for states and municipalities.
The third measure will be to increase the amount of
contributions public sector workers make to social security and
pension funds, a move that could allow the government to raise
billions of reais in new funds.
"The key for Brazil is to reduce public spending at state
level and on social security, because cuts made in those areas
are effective into the future," said Richard Gray, an analyst
at BankAmerica in London.
Congress President Antonio Carlos Magalhaes said measures
could be presented to lawmakers to approve as early as Monday.
The prospect of harsh fiscal steps and an IMF-led loan has
partially restored investor confidence in the battered
Brazilian economy after the Russian crisis in August triggered
a stampede of dollars out of emerging markets.
Some $30 billion have fled Brazil since the start of
August, raising fears of a devaluation that would almost
certainly hurl the whole of Latin America into recession and
hurt U.S. exports to the region.
Economists said a fiscal plan announcement would allow the
Central Bank to lower interest rates, which have stood close to
50 percent per year since mid-September.
But it will also spell a tough year for ordinary
Brazilians. The government is working with a forecast of flat
GDP growth in 1999, compared to earlier predictions of a 4
percent output increase, O Globo newspaper said on Tuesday.

Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service



To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9066)10/20/1998 11:19:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy  Respond to of 22640
 
Brazil fiscal plan still in the works - spokesman

Reuters, Tuesday, October 20, 1998 at 19:33

BRASILIA, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Brazil's economic team has yet
to deliver to President Fernando Henrique Cardoso the final
version of a fiscal austerity plan viewed as crucial to
preventing a devaluation, a Finance Ministry spokesman said.
Finance Minister Pedro Malan met with Cardoso earlier
Tuesday, but did not present the three-year fiscal plan, aimed
at keeping Brazil's economy alive and clearing the way for a
financial aid package led by the International Monetary Fund
(IMF).
"(The economic team) is due to deliver (the plan) to the
president in the next few hours. It could be today or
tomorrow," the spokesman told reporters.
Cardoso was due to discuss the measures with Congressional
leaders before making them public, he added.
The president will need the approval of lawmakers for large
chunks of the belt-tightening measures, destined to tackle a
gaping nominal budget deficit of close to 7 percent of gross
domestic product (GDP).
Political analysts said the fiscal steps would probably not
be announced until after second round voting in gubernatorial
elections Sunday, as key government allies are running for
governor in Brazil's three most important states.
Finance Ministry Executive Secretary Pedro Parente was due
to return to Brazil Wednesday, two days later than initially
announced, after holding what were described as "technical
talks" with IMF officials in Washington, the spokesman said.
Brazil has pledged to post a primary budget surplus,
excluding debt costs, of 2.5 percent to 3 percent of GDP in
1999 as part of a series of measures to secure an IMF-led loan.
5561 223-5918))

Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service



To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9066)10/20/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy  Respond to of 22640
 
U.S. Rubin denies Latam credit facility imminent

Reuters, Tuesday, October 20, 1998 at 21:57

NEW YORK, Oct 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Robert Rubin
denied the U.S. government was working with its Group of Seven
counterparts and multilateral lending agencies to structure a
credit facility for cash-strapped Latin American nations.
"I don't know where the rumor came from, but the rumor is
untrue," Rubin told reporters after delivering a speech here.
Rubin reiterated the U.S. dollar policy has not changed,
despite an unusually sharp drop in the dollar in recent weeks.
"Our dollar policy remains absolutely unchanged," Rubin
said.
Rubin also reiterated that he believes Japan's best hope
for reviving its beleaguered economy is to fix its ailing bank
sector.
"The absolute key with respect to Japan getting back on
track and resuming the remarkable economic record it's had for
most of the past 50 years is dealing with their bank problem,"
Rubin said.
"They've now put in place bank legislation; the key is to
implement it effectively and fully in such a fashion that it
deals with banking problems that have so impeded Japanese
growth over the last few years," he added.

Copyright 1998, Reuters News Service



To: Steve Fancy who wrote (9066)10/20/1998 11:28:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy  Respond to of 22640
 
RPT: JP Morgan Sees Brazil's Telebras Product Slowed By Fees

By MARGARITA PALATNIK
Dow Jones Newswires

NEW YORK -- Everyone thought that J.P. Morgan & Co. (JPM) had a sure
winner in hand when it launched its basket American depositary receipts on
Brazil's Telecomunicacoes Brasileiras SA, known as RTBs, on Oct. 13.

The RTBs are based on the most liquid instrument trading on the Sao Paulo
stock exchange, representing a 37% weight in the Bovespa index. Moreover,
they offer low fees, and afford easy arbitrage with the underlying security.

Finally, the new instrument comes on the heels of the successful launching of
HOLDRs (TBH), an ADR created by Merrill Lynch (MER) with the Bank of
New York (BK), which represents Telebras ADRs (TBR). Some observers
even predicted that RTBs would cause the demise of HOLDRs.

But a week after listing, and despite much industry praise, RTBs haven't taken
off, and J.P. Morgan is blaming The Bank of New York for the slow start.

Specifically, J.P. Morgan cites the unusually high fees charged by BONY for
cancelling Telebras ADRs into shares in the local market. For thousands of
Telebras ADR holders, the cancellation is a step prior to the conversion into
the local receipts, know as RCTB40s, which in turn can become RTBs.

BONY charges 25 cents per Telebras ADR cancelled, as opposed to a
standard 5 cent fee for most cancelled ADRs.

In the loosely regulated ADR market, BONY is the depositary agent for
Telebras, as well as for HOLDRs, the product that competes with RTBs.

Telebras was privatized on July 29, spun off into 12 units which trade on the
Sao Paulo stock exchange. New York listing for the ADRs of the new
companies - delayed for months - is expected within a few weeks.

J.P. Morgan sees the high Telebras cancellation fee as a deliberate effort by
BONY to impede conversion from HOLDRs into rival RTBs. J.P. Morgan
officials allege that shareholders didn't receive a customary 30-day written
notice about the fee increase.

"There was no notice to registered holders about any change in fees, so the
question is, 'is this a way to artificially increase a hurdle to exit TBR or TBH, to
get into RTB?' said J.P. Morgan vice president and ADR product manager
Eduard Van Raay. "We have seen no evidence to suggest contractual basis for
the charge,"

Traders surveyed said they didn't recall a written notice, but remembered being
informed by telephone.

BONY won't comment on the fees, but it has previously contended that the
original Telebras depositary contract contemplated a single company, and not
13 different shares, including each spinoff and the residual Telebras.

In fact, the Telebras cancellation rate - which was originally 5 cents - was
increased to 45 cents on Sept. 21 when 12 Telebras spinoffs started trading in
Brazil. The fees were lowered to 25 cents in early October.

"If the J.P. Morgan program is not traded, then they should look at the
structure of their program and not at ours. We're very comfortable with the
success our program has had, with the trading volume and the fees," said Joe
Velli, senior executive vice president at BONY. "We see efforts by some of
our competitors to duplicate our instrument as a form of flattery."

A trader who asked to remain anonymous said that the BONY's 25 cent fees
weren't unfair. "Actually it's cheap if you consider that times 13, the fee could
be 65 cents."

Van Raay is unconvinced, and claims that the fee doesn't really represent the
economic cost of cancelling the ADRs, given that the Brazilian market operates
in electronic form.

"I strongly suggest that investors and market participants seek clarification on
the fees," he added.

However, there may be other reasons why RTBs haven't taken off, market
participants say.

One reason why the RTBs sponsored by J.P. Morgan haven't caught on may
be that they arrived late in the game. By Oct. 13, when they were listed, the
RCTB40 receipts were already established as the vehicle of choice for
exposure to Telebras at the local level. Meanwhile, in New York, HOLDRs
enjoyed significant liquidity, with a current market capitalization of around $3
billion, according to BONY.

Another reason for RTBs slow start is the fact that no specific deadline was set
for the conversion, unlike what happened with HOLDRs initial July 27 date.

"People have started depositing the shares (for conversion) at the Brazil level,
which is a slow process," J.P. Morgan's Van Raay said.

Deutsche Bank's analyst Auro Rozenbaum thinks that much like what
happened in Brazil when the RCTB40s were created and languished untraded,
RTBs might pick up volume once the individual spinoff ADRs are listed in New
York.

"Until the (ADRs) are listed, there's no reason to trade RTBs," Rozenbaum
said. "In principle, I don't think the 25 cents (conversion fee) would be so
important."

Yet another contributing factor has nothing to do with fees.

"I believe that the marketing Merrill Lynch did on its retail customers was more
sophisticated," said Selmo Nissenbaum, president of Brazilian brokerage
Agora. "Merrill Lynch has a very good relationship with the local exchanges
and it has been dealing with them for the last six months. They also have a
bigger chain of retail customers."

-By Margarita Palatnik; 201-938-2226; margarita.palatnik@cor.dowjones.com