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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (25523)	10/20/1998 3:31:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Dataquest's outlook for the semiconductor-equipment sector was revised downward in a presentation by analyst Clark Fuhs. In July, he reported 1999 would be a year of marginal improvement for capital spending, increasing to $33 billion from this year's expected $31 billion. But Fuhs said Monday that he now thinks capital spending will fall by 8 percent to 10 percent next year. Then, why are the Funds still holding on. The RS has been moving up and the Funds owned holding steady according to the IBD. I would think that the Funds would have sold off and the RS would have dropped along with the recent highs dropping. The question is why haven't they fallen off. Teri, and or IBD subscribers, who get their IBD paper on time, what is the Funds owned # in todays Tuesday paper published in the Table section? I, being in Jefferson City, get mine mailed to me but it is a day late. The DW Bear Resistance line is at $32 which I doubt that we will break DW wise before retreating down again. The DW Bull support line is at $24. IMO, I can see AMAT retreating to that point for the trades. Then, it will have a new DW Bear Resistance line of $30 to break. IMO, we are in what Tom Dorsey calls a triangle pattern. It could break either way as it completes the pattern, up or down. However, with the lowering of interest rates, IMO, we will probably break to the upside this time after it test the DW bull support line at $24. But, as we have learned with AMAT you can not count on which way it is going to go. Gottfried, I notice on the DW AMAT chart that they had AMAT with a low on their chart at $16.50 and a high of $38. Therefore, I called Jay Ball and asked him how they calculated the figure and how much emphasis they placed on the calculation. His response was, "the calculation is based on a 10 weeks, calculated one a week during the weekend, and is the final calculation from dividing the trading range buy the median price X volatility # and previous high to get the theorical number." The interesting thing was that Jay, said that they place most weight on the DW TA charting patterns rather than the theorical number. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." I will be posting the DW Bull % tomorrow around 1:00 pm Eastern time. Paul V.