Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terrapin who wrote (5173)	10/20/1998 9:19:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

Read that last post twice, because it is pure common sense. I don't buy this rally either. I'm still every bit as bearish as I was before, for the reasons stated in the previous post. But I did get a screen of small cap value stocks today and just started off at the beginning and found that the first seven looked interesting. It wasn't like that before. Finally it seems the market is acting rationally and realizing that one group of stocks is very cheap and another isn't. It is very unusual for a small cap rally to occur during what should be tax loss selling time, but that's what we're seeing. One thing is clear to me - this is probably the best week for true value investors in the last several years. Can't remember the last time Mike has been this happy. Let's hope it lasts. Jim

To: Terrapin who wrote (5173)	10/20/1998 9:57:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78817

John. Problems you mentioned have already been discounted once. Maybe they won't be again. (We'll get new problems -g-). Yes, quite a dilemma-- to chase or to wait. I'll probably chase some and wait some -g-. Paul.

To: Terrapin who wrote (5173)	10/20/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Respond to of 78817

>>My problem is that every other problem that brought down the market in late summer is still there (foreign financial crises, domestic political crises, enormous consumer debt levels, etc). What could be driving this rally? << I agree with you completely. I suspect that there was some options related buying going on during last week. There have been a number of very suspicious rallies during options weeks over the last 2 years. I call them suspicious because they often occur completely counter to fundamantal developments. I think the Fed rate cut then added fuel to the rally and provoked a lot of short covering and momentum guys to join the party. Problem is that earnings (REPORTED not Operating) have been declining for about a year now and they will be down again this quarter. There is no way to justify current aggregate stock prices if you have a historical perspective. Also, Brazil is having significant problems that have yet to be resolved. All in all I believe this is a DEAD BALD EAGLE BOUNCE...albeit a big one. That said, I really don't care where the market is going. The prices in aggregate are still high for large, high quality blue chip companies. That's what matters. Value Investor Workshop members.aol.com

To: Terrapin who wrote (5173)	10/20/1998 11:26:00 PM
From: Shane M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

My problem is that every other problem that brought down the market in late summer is still there (foreign financial crises, domestic political crises, enormous consumer debt levels, etc). What could be driving this rally? John, Exactly what I'm thinking. Still semi-bearish. One difference, however, is that the small caps are at much reduced valuations from earlier in the year. The Dow stocks have not showed the same weakness, and this dichotomy still causes caution IMO. Can the small caps rise while the big caps tread water or even fall? Shane