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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (4416)10/20/1998 5:04:00 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net  Respond to of 11051
 
I was not clear on Martingale. Point is it is unsafe at all bets. Re quantity of puts etc...As long as it is a liquid market - and you dont have to deal with some MM shark - you can figure it out. Just have to watch for what's making the price moves - is it the underlying or is it something else - volatility and some time ago the interest rate shift for instance. Otherwise, no, I had no bad times with this subject, it all comes under the title of the education/penalty box.

My point re stud poker table (was not exactly clear): the only difference between this table and the market is the size, so you may (MAY) count on the laws coming out on the infinity side. But think of the task to predict the stud poker round - there's a faint possibility that .... (g - they outlawed any anyways) Anyways, show me the bank in Las vegas that got busted by a system. This is a dream, as old as the humanity itself.

Last point: LTCM got busted by screwed up risk management? Er... what about market turning a completely unexpected, fresh, ingenious way? And all the Nobel prize winners had to use vaseline etc to get back into shape.

dj