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To: marcos who wrote (22015)10/20/1998 5:11:00 PM
From: CIMA  Respond to of 116764
 
Good morning to you all. As investors continue to move markets
into higher ground, the fundamentals surrounding them continue to paint a
different picture. This morning, the US Commerce Dept. reported the US
trade deficit sat at a record $16.8 in August, as the Asian crisis pushed
exports down for a fifth straight month.

This fact makes it quite clear the US is importing far more goods than it
is exporting, which can not be interpreted in any other way than negative
for the economy. The trade deficit figures may account for the Federal
Reserve Board's unexpected rate cut last week. <underline>At the current
rate, the trade deficit is running at an annual pace of $165 Billion,
about 50% higher than 1997's deficit.

</underline>In addition to lower exports by US industry, business has
also had to worry about competition from cheap imports.

CONCLUSION

The trade deficit figures are painting the real picture here. The trade
deficit is on track to finish at 50% above last year's levels. As such,
if US companies are to continue reporting earnings growth and supporting
current stock market valuations, they are going to have to count on the
US consumer. Failing which, we could see a complete collapse in the
stock market, which would send shock waves through every global stock
market.

AGORA continues to remain defensive and continues to use the current
stock market momentum to raise cash. Any equity positions taken in this
environment will strictly be short term trading opportunities.

Have a great day.

Regards,

Agora.

<bold>

</bold>

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