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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (4419)	10/20/1998 7:37:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Hi Steve .. Re Pizza Nope .. never back tested it .. Paper traded?? Well, this is actually a more conservative adaptation of methods that I used in the etrade game that I used to play. The main concept is that while a stock is in a uptrend the premium has a tendency to collapse. Conversely while in a down trend the call premium drops. The trick is to catch the moment just before the change in trend. That captures the quick change in premium. My targets in the game were much higher than 100%. I adjusted the technique to target smaller gains and increase the probabilities of gain. DJ was correct with his identification of the source of the method. Of course, this could not have been for massive numbers of options. But, for the market to go up forever with never a pullback?? Well .. we got a pullback going on now. I get to watch and find out if this is just a backfilling movement or the resumption of the bear. This could well fit the ~60% move that DJ mentioned before. I don't think that is. Duration of this pullback should tell me. Re real numbers and paper trading .. I had not even begun to shop as the VIX had not yet hit my wish list target of 25. That said look what happened to the VIX after 2 PM today. I suppose that if this pullback should last a few days then the method would be to leg into calls. If you wish, I would be more than happy to post some paper trade movements. If I do that I think that I will target a 200% gain. Gersh

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (4419)	10/21/1998 10:28:00 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Re back-testing and mice and men... Fact is - this is the PROPERTY of the market, or possibly even better a definition of the market - that no back-testing can make it behave according to the model made. I get bouts of nausea when I see all those "guarranteed" success models (they're usually back-tested using the SFR/DM exchange rate, which is one of the sandbox cases,delivered with the Omega station)... Im not attacking the idea of doing anything with puts, Im just questioning the wisdom of using Martingale to enter the position. I always thought of this investment approach as pure posturing. Reminds me somehow of kids betting who'll jump the last over the train tracks. You have to discount or ignore few of the points Im making due to of the environment Im working in. No CBOE etc here, I cant short etc. Still, this does not hold me from making money or from losing it either. Its a question of strategy. But I guess my prayer is getting sort of too long for a nice day. DAX is bumping against the resistance. Will probably end up in a triangle and then we will see. BTW, the recent drop in SAP is due to me entering a long position (g). DJ