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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (25538)	10/20/1998 7:41:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks, the SEMI numbers for the last 3 months are labeled.. July - final August - revised September - preliminary So yesterday's release gave us updated numbers for July and for August. Therefore we won't get the final September numbers until December. The update numbers are always (?) contained in the regular announcement, not in between. Link to all announcements dom.semi.org Gottfried

To: Big Bucks who wrote (25538)	10/20/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB: There is a fair chance that the Sept. numbers will be revised downwards IMO. These numbers are a three month moving average and so there is a bias with the prevailing trend. We first learned that orders were went off a cliff sometime in June via various industry articles. So it is not surprising that September numbers sucked. But I was surprised on how much they sucked. It is time to get some historical buffs to weigh in on when we last saw this level of bookings. Wowser. Boy, would I sure like to see the monthly breakdown to get a better picture of what is going on here. There comes a time in the cycle where we, as individual investors, are in the dark on the prevailing trend. Analysts have industry contacts and they can evaluate and make better guesses as to what is going on in the industry. Stock prices in this sector can then rise without any corresponding improvement in bookings. We saw this in September 1996 until November 1996. The October 1996 BtB report as delivered in November showed an uptick in bookings confirming an upward trend. But by that time AMAT had risen about 50% from its lows. Are we in such a time period now? I don't know for sure but as the risk/reward equation changed today, I took some profits in NVLS. But as this dry spell goes on goes on at this amazing rate of decline, the more I am likely to support a "V" shaped recovery thesis whereas before I was in the "U" camp. One thing is for sure: we are closer to a recovery now than we were three months ago : ).