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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (25546)	10/20/1998 8:43:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

BB, OK - I'll update the other btb chart tonight. Here is an interesting study done by Ken Fisher, a frequent Forbes columnist. A little background: you know how many of us say "the market's P/E is much too high compared to historical P/Es". What we leave unspoken is the assumption P/E must come down by reduction in share price. Fisher did a little study ... People say P/Es are too high. Check your history. High P/Es simply don't lead to terrible market years. Compare year-end market P/Es and subsequent-year returns. The 15 worst negative years ever came from the mid-to-low end of the P/E range, including 1929 and 1930. Out of the past 125 years, I picked 18 years with the highest P/Es. Of these, 15 were followed by up years in the stock market, only 3 by down years, and none by double-digit down years. The article is titled "Get fully invested" forbes.com The new issue of Forbes just arrived in my mail today and much of it is already on the web site. Gottfried