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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (2186)	10/20/1998 10:18:00 PM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2578

I'm not so sure about that down market. The overall market has a lot of strength. It will take a while to slow it down and bring it down some IMO.

To: Bilow who wrote (2186)	10/24/1998 10:07:00 PM
From: lin luo	Respond to of 2578

Bilow, I almost agreed with your assessment, except that there is a bonus effect associated with OCT/NOV months. Fund managers need to push market higher to get more from their market performance, it is based on the YTD performance ended these two months depending on the companies. After that they don't really care. They used the rate-cut and good earnings to play the markets. My two-week period is finished now, people should be able to make up their minds where to push. We are at the cross road now, my view is still down. The markets are not totally random like the nerds predicated, even at the minute level. There are more persistent in price movement such as they had 7-up in the past two weeks. Always put a stop-loss to avoid the crazy events like sudden rate-cut. That is when people lose. I once had a call on cotton and it had limit-up for 4 days. No trading at all. I don't know how these nerds evaluate the options. Options== chance. My way of gambling is usually long-term, probably not very useful to daytrading. First, I have to make some assumptions, like everyone else. a) the effect of any events will only last about two weeks because people can not remember what happened back then, it is true to me at least. It is especially true at internut era where maximum entropy point can easily be reached in shorter time period. So, two-week chart should reflect something with minor ripple effect. Since it is hard to get two-week chart, I usually use monthly chart. That will really erase noises. b) The motivations of buy/sell and hold are totally different. Once is greed and the other is 'wishful thinking'. You may buy/sell based on fundamental/technical, but hold or buy/sell more after you get involved is usually driven by some other purposes. This will also make the market persistent in a sense. So, based on these two points and ignore all other tech/fund analysis, it should be clear if a stock /index is persistent doing something on the monthly basis, it means there is something to it. For example, DOW and NASDAQ have been persistent overbought until recently. During that period, we had a remarkable bull-market. So, was DELL, MSFT and CSCO.They usually have much less risk than other stocks, even during bear-market. I think I am still not clearly explained but maybe that is my purpose, and my promise is fulfilled.