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To: JPR who wrote (73327)	10/20/1998 11:32:00 PM
From: Rich Young	Respond to of 176387

I agree, JPR. Just about every intra-day chart I looked at today, especially for tech stocks, turned south at about 2pm eastern, with a little bounce just before the close and then a fade. The bigger the name, the more closely it followed the market. I'm inclined to believe that any PJ comments were only a minor part of the selloff and that it was more of a market event than anything - pre-earnings profit taking, IMO. IBM's caution might balance a lot of the good news that came out today after the close. Might be that the DOW gets held down by big blue and the NAZ takes off. Lucent reports Thursday morning and should help fuel the fire if it fades a little. Asia is helping tonight, too. All in all, should be a mildly positive day for the market in general tomorrow, but expect profit taking to dominate by the end of the week. All IMO. Rich

To: JPR who wrote (73327)	10/21/1998 8:49:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

The Acampora Missive-'the Bear market is over'- Pheeew now I can get a good night's sleep. JPR: Sure after 4-5 days of continuous and rather healthy run up in the market a pull back is only natural,no special predictive powers are required to arrive at this conclusion as some of the pundits would have us believe.<g> Now check this out and look who is back. ======================================= Source: Bloomberg Oct 20 1998 5:50PM - Bloomberg News Prudential's Acampora Says U.S. Bear Market Is Over (Update2) (Adds perspective.) New York, Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Prudential Securities Inc. technical analyst Ralph Acampora said the bear market in U.S. stocks is over. Acampora on August 4 called for a bear market, usually defined as a 20 percent decline from the market's peak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average did fall 19 percent by Aug. 31. Since then the average rebounded 13 percent, which Acampora said helped change his outlook. The analyst said he was also encouraged by the Federal Reserve unexpectedly cutting the bank lending rate by a quarter percentage point last Thursday, and by the recent rally among long-suffering small stocks. ''Our stance is to use any hesitation to buy attractive stocks,'' Acampora wrote on Prudential's web site. ''The market continues to broaden as volume expands. This combination is very impressive, especially after the Fed's positive move on interest rates last week.'' Acampora told Prudential's sales force today that the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit bottom when it touched 7400 on Sept. 1. In recent years, Acampora has been among the most bullish market analysts. Yet lately he's changed his forecasts as the market direction shifted. In June, 1997, he predicted the Dow average would surpass 10,000 in 1998. In December, shares sagged amid concern about slowing growth in Asia and Acampora reversed his call. In March, after a rally, he returned to his Dow 10,000 call. In August, he retreated again. As recently as last week, he said the Dow could drop as low as 6500. Washed Out His recent bullish call, however, is no flip-flop. When he turned bearish in early August he wrote that every four years the market provides ''a new, major buying opportunity -- this is called the 'Four-Year-Cycle Theory.' '' ''Hence, if we are correct, and the current market suffers a decline to the mid 7,000 area by, lets say September/October 1998, then we could witness a major four-year bottom,'' he wrote. The Dow closed at 7539.07 on Aug. 31, its low for the year. The Dow today rose 39.40, or 0.5 percent, to 8505.85. Acampora told Bloomberg Television yesterday that the Dow could easily climb above 8600. ''The problems we saw in August have been washed out,'' by the Fed cutting interest rates, he said. ''I'm very optimistic we've got the big problems over with.'' The bullish call was not emphatic. Acampora, who studies share prices and volume to assess the market's direction, says the earlier declines have taken a toll. For example, the Russell 2000 Index, a benchmark of small and mid-capitalization shares, for example, fell as much as 37 percent from its highs before its recent rally. ''No one should underestimate the price damage that was inflicted upon the market, but also the psychological damage upon the investors -- all of this takes time to repair,'' he wrote on the site, which is at prusec.com/ralphcom.htm. Acampora was not available for an interview. --Philip Boroff and Nick Olivari in the New York newsroom (212) 318-2849, with reporting by Nicola Hobday/ltk/csc Story illustration: GSPA GIP to see the performance of the S&P futures today and WEI to see the performance of benchmark stock indexes in major market worldwide. News by category: Regional news: NI USS U.S. stocks NI US U.S. NI STK Stocks NI ADVISE Strategists Company news: 4353Z US