Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: brian z who wrote (8839)	10/21/1998 6:04:00 AM
From: REH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

OT Got this from a Far East Institution: <<19 October, 1998 Weekly 10.3 The American Red Cross recently reported that Hurricane Georges was the most ex-pensive storm they have ever had to deal with. Long Term Capital Management was the largest hedge fund snafu but not the last. Obuchi's 63 trillion yen is the biggest country bail-out ever. Russia was the world's most spectacular fraud and Asia's recovery next year is going to knock our socks off. What was to be a modest rise in Asian markets has become theatre as speculators race to cover their short positions and longer term investors race to lay down the 1998 vintage for future consumption. It is bit over done really, but it demonstrates the conflict of interest in the region's capital markets. Speculators dominated the region for over a year but had became complacent. "It'll never recover", they said, "I'm not going to risk my capital in those markets", they said. "De-value the currencies", they said. They nearly got their way but the HKMA stopped them in their tracks with a round they least expected. This also may possibly have been the stray that put an end to LTCB and it's ilk. The Asian contagion is retreating and it's the Asians that are seeing it off. Yes, there will be moments when the picture will blur but the recovery is under way. China will, of course, rightly deserve some of the kudos for containing the contagion. Not only did China prevent the devalua-tion of the Renminbi but she began a program of fiscal and monetary expansion at precisely the right time. All is not well as the bankruptcies of GITIC and GzITIC have shown, but I think these serve to underline the determination of Beijing that this expansion is to be cleaner this time round. As portfolio managers, we decided in late August the recovery was coming. This lead us to re-search the market and to our delight, we found many companies in the food, infrastructure and technology sectors where the earnings were about rise sharply but no one seemed to care. In recent weeks, these shares have performed very well. Although they will be subject to correction, we think the trend will be upward for the next two years. North America has called a time-out after 8 years on the field. A very impressive record, indeed. Does it really matter or can the world live without her economic leadership? It might ap-pear a bit traditional but the US likes to take a breather in the middle of the election cycle. It is not the end of life, only a respite. Since the seeds of the next expansion are already being sown in the form of fiscal and monetary easing, we should not be alarmed. Besides Mr. Greenspan's line was around 6,500 so a return to that level might seem reasonable to him. So where to make money? The best way is to add to your current portfolio holdings man-aged by The International Portfolio LLc. For those of you who, for some reason or another, have resisted the temptation to invest with us, please give either Scott or me a call and we will help you fill out the forms. It really is easy as so many of you have found out. >> reh