To: The Street who wrote (22052 ) 10/21/1998 11:09:00 AM From: waldo Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116760
THIS WEEK IN GOLD Commentary from The World Gold Council George Milling Stanley ------------------------------------------------------------------------ (New York /Week of October 12 - October 16, 1998) On balance a quieter week for gold, with the partial closure of the US markets on Monday for the Columbus day holiday setting the early tone. A more stable US dollar together with firmer stock markets saw gold initially weaken, but underlying support emerged at $295 and quotations held within a narrow $295-297 range up to and including Wednesday. Attention remained focussed upon currency and equity markets for direction but, with volatility in these markets calming down, trading in gold was quieter and mostly directionless. On Thursday prices strengthened on both renewed US dollar weakness and the repurchasing of forward positions by Australian mining companies taking advantage of the recovery in the Australian dollar. The surprise move by the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 5% and the discount rate by the same amount to 4.75% - an unusual move between Federal Open Market Committee meetings and seen as a sign of America's concern over the global financial crisis - then lent further impetus to the move and gold rallied to a fixing of $300.45 on Friday morning. The weakening dollar lent support throughout the day but gold encountered some stiff overhead resistance, ending the week at the $300 level. There were no statistics published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission this week. The latest Commitment of Traders reports, for the two weeks ending October 6th, showed the turmoil in financial markets sparking a sharp reversal in the net position of the large speculators on Comex, which switched from a net short position of 19,013 contracts (equivalent to 59.1 tonnes) to a net long 23,669 contracts (73.6 tonnes), a turnaround of 42,682 contracts (132.8 tonnes). Since then open interest has moved up by some 10,000 contracts, suggesting that further buying may have taken place. With liquidity becoming more plentiful due to both the downturn in short-selling and increased lending from holders of new speculative long positions, near-term gold lease rates eased once more; the one-month rate dropped from 0.38% to 0.30% over the week. Longer-term rates also weakened with the 12-month rate moving down from 1.76% to 1.58%, perhaps reflecting the impact of the recent currency-related unwinding of forward sales by some Australian producers. The possibility of Russia issuing gold and silver coins as a means of backing the rouble appears to be strengthening with consultations between the Central Bank of Russia and Gokhran, the state precious metals reserve, currently underway. Following the default on domestic debt and the imposition of a moratorium on some foreign debt repayments last August, the prospects for further borrowings are bleak, while the central bank is refusing to issue unbacked roubles. With a fourth quarter budget deficit estimated at 100 billion roubles, the Russian government is desperately seeking funds and seems to be looking to gold to provide at least a partial solution. According to press reports between 100 billion and 200 billion roubles ($6.25 billion and $12.5 billion) worth of coins could be issued using the reserves of Gokhran, but initially an experimental 1.5 to 4.5 billion roubles (10-30 tonnes) could be minted. It is intended, if the plan gains approval, to use the coins as a means of payment and also trade them on exchanges. These proposals raise as many questions as they answer and further clarification of Russia's intentions is needed. The People's Bank of China announced that as from October 12th it had raised its gold purchase price for .999 gold from 79.15 yuan to 82.36 yuan per gram; this price adjustment comes after two price cuts earlier in the year in response to a then weakening international market.usagold.com W