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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (22437)	10/21/1998 1:14:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164684

The genius who authored that analysis of AMZN should take comfort from knowing that there is a position waiting for him at Long Term Capital should he be relieved of his duties at DLJ. I'm sure they could put his spreadsheet analysis to good use there.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (22437)	10/21/1998 2:23:00 PM
From: MrLuckyman	Respond to of 164684

< This is from DLJ and I consider a very large stretch: > I have never seen numbers used in so unrealistic a fashion, as to become so disassociated with the reality they are attempting to model, that the attempt becomes comical. It is not even necessary to pick apart all of the inherent flaws in the logic of DLJ's vision of reality for Amazon. While not a direct analogy, the standard "statistician's conundrum" will suffice to support the obvious, that "the numbers" do not always lead you to the correct conclusions when transposed into the "real world". It goes like this: "The odds of a bomb being on board your overseas flight and being blown up are 1,000,000 to 1 "The odds of a second bomb being on the same flight 5,000,000 to 1" "CONCLUSION: to reduce my odds against being blown up mid flight i should carry a bomb onto the plane" DLJ's model assumes no competition, ability to raise more capital at current rates, etc, etc, etc.