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To: Thomas M. who wrote (9130)	10/21/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86076

>>The unfolding of global events has occurred at about the same pace as in the last 1920s.<< True but mainstreet america learns about them real time via the CNN's and internet links of the world. Joe knows so much about the 20's-30's I think he was actually alive then <g> MM

To: Thomas M. who wrote (9130)	10/21/1998 12:52:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

<<All those tools and gizmos will NEVER change one thing - human emotions, the driving force behind markets. No one has a right for higher returns because of one's:>> #reply-6081962 Some interesting read: <<You may suspect there is another point of view to be considered. Indeed, there is, courtesy of William Kaye, a Hong Kong-based American hedge fund manager with The Pacific Group. Kaye was speaking in New York at a Grant's Asia Observer conference Thursday afternoon when someone in the audience of institutional investors interrupted with news of Greenspan's cut. Fortunately for Kaye, he had anticipated easier money when he prepared his chilling talk: "The Approaching Nuclear Winter for U.S. and Global Equities." His advice: sell into any rally sparked by easing. Cheaper money doesn't mean stocks won't be ripped by a bear market, Kaye says. The proof is as near as Japan's market, still bleeding around 1985 levels even though the Bank of Japan cut its discount rate from 6% in 1990 to 0.5% now. The reason behind his argument: Commercial banks have lost so much money in emerging-market debt that they have no choice but to cut back on their outstanding loans. "The banks have to tighten the screws to deal with their own problems," he says. The banks will turn away borrowers who normally would have their loans renewed. Kaye estimates that banks from rich countries will need about $485 billion, 2.3 years of recent profits, to rebuild their capital to 10% of loans outstanding. They would need even more to reach the 12% capital ratio reported before the crisis. >> usatoday.com