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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (1939)	10/21/1998 4:48:00 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 2506

Great info. Thanks.

To: Q. who wrote (1939)	10/21/1998 6:14:00 PM
From: John Dally	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

Hi John, Thanks for your numerous fine contributions to SI. Since more money is being put into mutual funds whose fiscal year ends October 31st, much of the tax-loss selling now occurs at the end of October. The data shown in the graph supports that view. Therefore, the strategy I would devise using the data from the graph, would be to close the affected shorts at the end of October and go long the "good" depressed cos at the same time (i.e. also end of October). November looks like a good month to be long these cos and I would ride them through mid-February. I think that "institutional ownership" would be a relevant screening criteria for the end of October picks. Best regards, John.

To: Q. who wrote (1939)	10/21/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: Harpo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

Hi John, re: tax loss selling It's obviously not a broken down stock but I've been looking at Outdoor Systems (OSI, nyse) the billboard co. 33% off it's july 98 high P/E is 132 5X book by no means in trouble, but has quite a lot of debt. Institutions own 76%, according to marketguide, I'd link the whole report, but I couldn't figure out how. IBD EPS rating is 51 Earnings were out yesterday, they met estimates, but barely. I'm a little baffled as to why the thing is so expensive, it seems like an ok company and all, but sheesh! (I borrowed a very few shares today) regards, bb

To: Q. who wrote (1939)	10/22/1998 12:31:00 AM
From: drakes353	Respond to of 2506

John: Thanks for the info, guess people will puke losers even if they don't have any winners to offset them with. I'm in the "there's really two tax selling seasons" camp. One for most mutual funds, ending right about now, and another for individual investors, ending Xmas/New Year's. One of these years I'm gonna have my act together and go into October short a pile of poorly performing, low priced stocks with high institutional ownership, cover them around the end of the month and replace them with a pile of poorly performing, low priced stocks with low institutional ownership and ride those down 'til Xmas. Usually get the second part right but never pull the trigger on the early October shorts, maybe next year. FWIW, I've seen three talking heads on CNBC in the last week or so advising people to start working on their year end tax strategies. Regards, drakes353

To: Q. who wrote (1939)	10/23/1998 10:16:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 2506

No indication yet that E*Trade bought me in with MCAR as threatened. And if you like high flyers, PVN is drifting down steadily now.

To: Q. who wrote (1939)	10/24/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2506

ENER - quote.yahoo.com - I often see sudden surges like this on one-day charts. You can't convince me that 30 or 40 small investors suddenly decided to start buying in the same half-hour period, just out of sheer coincidence. Perhaps someone wanted to make a large buy and the broker worked it for them in small pieces. No news or reason to cover that I can see. Any thoughts?