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To: GGekko who wrote (2101)10/22/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: Steve Reinhardt  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 3493
 
GGekko,

Read this one at Yahoo Message board. The guy seems to know the operation of ESS pretty well.

Steve

messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com


Why it is a good time to buy ESS now rather than December?

BY: AlplineBoarder_98 Oct 22 1998 12:58PM EDT

ESS has been losing money for quite a few quarters.
The stock price has been down from mid $20s to between $2 and $3.

History that made ESS went down:
(0)World economy, Wintel, under$1000PC, under$500PC, what have you, etc....
(1)audio is changing from ISA to PCI, while both ISA & PCI audio price drops and
PCI market is small
(2)modem product shipment is small
(3)video CD chip set price deteriorates so nobody made money.

Why should one buy ESS now?
(1) PCI audio market starts to pick up, ESS has a major market share with orders to
ship. Result should be obvious this Q.
(2) V.90 modem, after long cycles of evaluation by potential customers, starts to see
light from the tunnel but not out of the water yet but it provides ESS a strong feature set
for its audio;
(3)SVCD is the reason. ESS expects SVCD to bring revenues and profitable quarter by
the end of this year.-- The CEO said so a few days ago. He has been quite accountable
so far.

ESS should be doing $80 MM in Q4, 1998 with 20cents EPS and $85MM in Q1,
1999 with 22cents EPS. With PE of 10 to 15, it is a $8 to $12 dollar stock. The
prospect of achieving these rev/profit goals are quite probable. Therefore buy ESS now
at around $3 to $4, the risks seems to be low and upside potential are quite high in the
next six months. If you are long term (12 months or longer), then Q2, Q3 of 1999
remains to be tough but should be better than the same period of 1998. If ESS sails
through that time in 1999, it can reap rewards again in Q4, 1999 when business should
come back again... If you are individual investors like I am, you should act before the
fund managers do so. (I should have dumped the stock before they did in Q3~q4,
1997)

The naysayers are
(1) who shorts ESS stocks
(2) competitors of ESS who would love to see ESS stock price depressed but definitely
not someone who was burned by ESS before

To those I said present your case and reason rationally or you should post at your
favorite stocks if you are (2) and you should be ashamed of yourself to post here if you
are (1).


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