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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1080)	10/22/1998 10:57:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

So Ericsson's result was pretty gruesome. What is interesting is the current relief rally. Just how bad did the Wall Street expect the numberswould be if they are now grateful? What is of the greatest concern to Nokia is the 2% decline in mobile phone sales. This is heavy. This division grew by 1% last quarter, now it actually shrinks. Amidst of at least 30% growth of the overall market. All the predictions of Nokia's market share gains are wrong - the shift is bigger than anyone anticipated. Note how carefully Ericsson keeps referring to January-September numbers to deflect attention from the 3Q performance. It looks like Ericsson's handset sales growth for the entire 1998 is going to be under 10%. And the company has the nerve to still insist that they are defending their market share. Full marks for chutzpah, full deductions for Motorola-like denial mode. You have to see the current Ericsson 888 ad campaign here in Europe to believe it - they have poured megabucks into this lavish, extensive all-out ad attack. And it had no impact: they still lost 2% of their 1997 3Q sales. Incredible. (Sorry, Mardy, but this really is hard to believe). It's not like the infrastructure division would be any saving grace; at 16% Nokia should be able to double this growth. The notorious Infocom division keeps sinking: -2%. All three core divisions underperformed the market. And Nokia? It's looking much better than yesterday. Ericsson's attempt to counterattack Nokia's new models by price cuts and heavy advertising looks like a total failure. According to several sources (including Wireless Week) Motorola's mobile phone sales contracted in 3Q - the 9% growth in "cellular products" division stemmed purely from network sales. So now both Motorola and Ericsson have delivered an actual sales contraction in mobile phones, simultaneously and amidst a booming market. Anything less than 60% sales growth for Nokia phones now would be a huge disappointment. Tero