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To: Berney who wrote (4449)10/21/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: Gersh Avery  Respond to of 11051
 
Berney .. No, you got it right

Paper trading options in the opposite direction of the trend. Trying out a system that should produce a nice margin.

Gersh



To: Berney who wrote (4449)10/22/1998 1:49:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 11051
 
Berney; RE:" Chat and Chew T/A "

IF we assume that this is an UpTrend - our charts look different...

...for example, the target on IBM becomes something like ~148 (^_^)

RLX.X - Retail Sector Index

geocities.com

...certainly looks near the top of its apparent DownTrend trading range channel, n'est-ce pas ? Indeed, the last three daily candlesticks have an evening star aspect, and an apparent reversal sentiment. But in an UpTrend, a reversal is something like 1 to 3 sessions. I wonder if RLX.X will re-test its DownTrend ?

The solid DownTrend Line is drawn from closing prices; the dashed DownTrend Line is drawn from absolute high prices. The horizontal dashed lines are fibonacci levels, which are computed rather than placed. 200d EMA is yellow; 50d EMA is magenta; 14d EMA is cyan.

Stochastics are %K=14, 2 slowing, %D=3, method time series.

The bellwether is WMT - Wal-Mart

WMT's chart looks like a triple-top; entry points are 1x65, 2x63, 3x61 and 4x58 +/-1 = 10x60.6

DRG.X - Pharmaceutical Sector Index

geocities.com

According to this chart, Tuesday's close / Wednesday's open was an entry point for DRG.X; ie., having broken the little DownTrend drawn from 23-SEP's top, DRG.X paused and then re-traced back to its 50d EMA at ~665 and said, "buy me, I'm going to ~675 and then maybe ~690".

The bellwether is MRK - Merck

...but JNJ - Johnson & Johnson will do; component AMGN - Amgen looks similar. Personally, I prefer to play the index rather than the components in this sector, but yeah - I'd rather be 2:1 = LONG : SHORT in a ratio backspread at DRG.X ~665. How about you ?

NF.X - Financial Sector Index

geocities.com

After going from 600 to 400 in three months, everybody expects NF.X to tank on down to ~450. The 200d EMA is around ~500. We can only guess that this remarkable recovery was amplified by short-covering. The three sub-sectors: BKX.X IUX.X XBD.X look similar to NF.X

Beats me, Berney (^_^) I sold covered CALLs to exit, but now I'm thinking of re-entering GRN - General Re again :-/

XMI.X - Major Market Index

geocities.com

...man, that sure looks like a top. Thing is, I can think of no "news" that would drive it down, can you ?

I mean, GE - General Electric is telling me, "I want to go to ~86, and then maybe ~90".

-Steve