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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jach who wrote (18353)	10/22/1998 4:18:00 AM
From: nihil	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77397

RE: Cisco sympathy move Don't care to discuss the whole day, but S&P, Dell and Intel gapped up on the open (Intel ~ 3 points), and then immediately started a 60-90 minute decline. CSCO gapped up 1 and fell 1 in the first 10 minutes and then trended up for the next hour. It is impossible to correlate these movements. True, if you look at the 10 minutes patterns for the last few days there is an extraordinary correlation between Dell and CSCO, but even had I recognized it contemporaneously, I would have hesitated to day trade. It is true that on Friday pm to Tuesday there was no trend in the highs for CSCO, and about $1.5/share for Dell, but Dell is being vigorously pumped by all and sundry. Anyone who wants to make money consistently in these stocks should put them in a safe deposit box and take a long vacation, perhaps in the South Seas, where there will be no temptation to sell high or sell low. No one can foretell the future, and almost everyone believes that these two guys are the best bets in town -- that's why they are so overpriced.

To: jach who wrote (18353)	10/22/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 77397

CSCO can drop in a big way if they happen to indicate any softness going forward in their qtr report due out early Nov. Oh..gee, now there's a rocket scientist. Jach, here's two things you can take to the bank...and these happen every quarter. 1) Cisco will meet expecations 2) Cisco will discuss softness in the market, possibility of erroding margins, and increased competition in selected markets. They do this at every release and every subsequent quarter they make their numbers. They are obliged to discuss weakness or risk stockholder suits. Now, for a third thing. Cisco will run up a bit into earnings and drop afterwards. This again is not rocket science. So, do us all a favor, don't take credit for predicting what is already known by just about everyone on this thread. Oh, a fourth thing. Cisco will quickly recover from profit taking after earnings. So, you can try to time the market and try to get lucky (your approach), which nearly every financial manager will tell you is a very poor way to invest for the long term. Or you can stick with a winner, ride it through the bumps and come out on top 5 - 10 years from now. The only reason to sell CSCO between now and earning is if you need the money for christmas gifts. Fortunatley most CSCO holders have made enough in the past that they don't need to liquidate for such a small set of purchases. You suggestions at popping money in and out of a stock is very short term trading with associated taxes. I'm going to guess that even if you're lucky enough to call highs and lows (which given past performance is highly doubtful) that any incremental gains you might experience from this whipsawing will be used to pay taxes. In the end the long term holder of stocks such as CSCO, DELL, INTC, LU, MSFT etc. will generate more earnings after tax than your method. AND, we'll all have more stomach lining. Maybe we should set up a day trade CSCO site for you to pontificate on. OG