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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: poodle who wrote (14729)	10/22/1998 2:49:00 AM
From: space cadet	Respond to of 18691

As I mentioned in my last post, I think the bear market of '98 is history. However, the wild way that the small cap speculative crap has flown the last week or so is crazy. Some of the small cap were good growing companies that got sucked down the small cap whirlpool. They deserve to have rebounded. However, much of the small caps are stocks with decreasing earnings for '99 and they too have flown higher. This leads me to suspect we are going to retest 8000 after the earnings season momentum has ended, perhaps as early as the next week or two. There simply has been too much "irrational exuberance" in my opinion. Of course, even if we do go down, the next fed rate cut is coming in Nov so I doubt we will go down all that much. However, hearing how bullish virtually everyone on SI is, and all the analysts, and how most shorts have now covered, the contrarian in me is thinking maybe this is a good time to test 7400. I kind of doubt we can break below 8000 but if 8000 doesn't hold people may panic and we may retest 7400. I definitely think that the semi's and semi equipment companies that have doubled and tripled overnight need to go back down, since I don't believe they will have the earnings anytime soon to support their now lofty prices. So we might yet see another period of weakness soon, between fed interest rate cuts...