To: Joseph Francis Torti who wrote (73757 ) 10/22/1998 9:32:00 AM From: Rif Kamil, M.D Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Joe: Where will DELL go? The last few weeks has shown that there is considerable downward pressure on DELL (mainly via profit taking) and that the upward momentum has not been as impressive as in the past. (I am only talking relatives here... DELL has still made impressive gains from its recent lows but the fact that it even hit those lows is worrisome). I feel that the recent market surge (DOW from 7500 to 8500, Nasdaq from the 1400's to the 1600's) has been WAY too rapid. Yes there are good news events (a recent rarity) such as the congressional approval of IMF funding, the Japanese seemingly getting their act together, and a reasonable IMF package for Brazil. HOWEVER, there are also ominous signs: the FED lowering interest rates (I feel this is a cause for paradoxical concern due to the famous "cash crunch" that caused this), the significant REDUCTION in US exports (forget the imports, everyone knew they would be very high), and the rise in unemployment. The US economy is a large reservoir. It has soaked up a lot of bad news in the last year with a lot of lag. The gradual slowdown we are seeing is reflective of this lag. Even as SE Asia shows signs of life, I feel that we will see signs of a slow-down in the North American economy. I feel that GDP projections for next year will be progressively reduced. I do not feel that FED interest rate increases will be a powerful-enough tool to completely mitigate the slowdown. I think we will test lows again. DELL has been vulnerable to fairly wild swings in the last two months. There is every reason to believe this will continue into the short-term future with possibly less meteoric comebacks as investors lose their faith in the DELL myth. In the intermediate term if the US economy truly slows then infrastructure spending will also slow and PC sales (particuarly to the corporate sector) will also slow. IF this happens (and it is a big if) this will hit DELL harder than CPQ, HWP etc. Their valuations have gone nowhere in the last year (unlike DELL's). DELL's valuation is critically dependent on it achieving forward-looking ballistic growth. If it should falter there will be major corrections in its price. I have no doubt that DELL will continue to outstrip CPQ and the others in gaining market share and keeping its efficiencies impressively better than its competitors. BUT the rate of growth has to slow if the economy slows. Of course, all IMHO. Regards, Rif