Read it and smile, my friends--another classic Dooper post--keep in mind that cobalt cannot be used for Orinoco bottoms and SASOL has shown no interest, so a substantial portion of this work should go to RNTK/TX. Soon many investors and institutions will be realizing this...
>>By: Dooper55
Reply To: None Thursday, 22 Oct 1998, 5:45 PM EDT
Post # of 1181
Orinoco..RNTK..facts..projections..good stuff
After diddling with my calculator all afternoon, this was way too interesting to pass up.
This is an analysis of the potential for RNTK from ONE spot on Earth that will represent less than ONE percent of the world's petroleum production in ten years.
Virtually all hard data from Oil & Gas Journal, 10/19/98
Location: Orinoco Belt, Venezuela
1.3-1.8 TRILLION barrels of heavy and extra heavy oil in place
270 BILLION barrels classified as recoverable (Saudi Arabia has 260 B barrels)
Huge infrastructure being planned/built by four major players; Petrozuata, Cerro Negro, Sincor and Petrolera Hamaca (latter 20% owned by TX). Additional projects by Exxon, Coastal and BP have been defined, but are not included in my analysis.
All of these players' wells produce heavy crude that must be diluted in order to be piped to upgraders at Jose, Venezuela, the shipping terminal. I'll ignore the possibility of IGFT at the wellheads to produce diluents. Their current plans are to recycle diluents like naphtha.
At Jose, four upgrader complexes will be built to support shipping over 500,000 bpd of syncrude to refineries worldwide. I'm going to focus just on factors of major interest to RNTK. First, a list of the four players' upgrader plans. These are FIRST PHASE plans with expansions already planned. I've listed the name, the year the upgrader will be up and running, the bpd of heavy crude going to each, and the metric tons of petroleum coke that will be produced by each per day:
Petrozuata...... ........yr: 2000...........120,000*bpd.............3,200 tons
Cerro Negro.............yr: 2001...........120,000 bpd.............2,040 tons
Sincor......................yr: 2001...........160,000 bpd..............4,740 tons
Petrolera Hamaca....yr: 2002...........165,000 bpd..............3760 tons
* 60,000 initially, building to 120,000
Now combining those:
Yr: 2000-2002............565,000 bpd............13,740 tons.
Note: This is heavy crude and produces more petroleum coke than lighter/sweeter crudes.
From RNTK: Each ton of petroleum coke can be gasified and F-T'd (using iron catalyst only, cobalt dies in this application) to produce 2.5 barrels of F-T liquid products. (I think this is an important number for Brian's and Cougar's analyses)
There is virtually no use for the petroleum coke at Jose. TX/RNTK IGFT units can be installed throughout these complexes in the economical manner we've been discussing for months. The supporting infrastructure will already be there.
If all the first phase Jose petroleum coke was IGFT'd, it'd produce about 38,000 bpd of F-T liquid products. (13,740 times 1.1 to get short tons times 2.5 to get bpd). My guesstimate is that the players would have to spend $200-300M to install that IGFT capability. At $20/barrel (my guesstimate) for the premium F-T products, and assuming 90% operating time/yr, the products might have a market value of about $250M. So the ROI is likely to be very good and justify the IGFT investment. As always, make your own assumptions and do your own analyses. I'm just trying to get in the ballpark.
Note: 38,000 bpd of F-T divided by 565,000 bpd of crude input = 6.7% (a number for Brian, et al)
Now let's assume that TX gets the bulk of the IGFT license fees and that they're about $1/barrel. Give TX 2/3 and RNTK 1/3. So if all the petroleum coke in Jose's first phase was IGFT'd with TX/RNTK units, RNTK would get about $4M per year.
Remember:
- Jose = less than 1% of world petroleum refining
- This includes nothing for coal IGFT (China and India potential)
- This includes nothing for GTLing natural gas
- This includes nothing for Okon/ITN/other things
Another analysis of interest, again, just the Orinoco Belt.
If 270 billion barrels of crude get recovered and all resultant petroleum coke from the upgraders was IGFT'd at 0.067 F-T barrels per heavy crude barrel, were looking at 18 BILLION barrels of F-T liquids. If RNTK got $0.33/barrel...........$6 billion goes to RNTK over the life of the Orinoco field. And in theory, RNTK doesn't have to spend hardly a dime to get this income. TX does all the work, and (rightfully) gets the big slice of the revenues.
Now I know this is the max end, most optimistic, pie-in-the-sky number. Sooooooo........apply your own factors. Think TX/RNTK will only get 10% penetration in Jose? Darn, that cuts RNTK's Orinoco-life, zero-cost revenues (read: profits) to ONLY $600M.
and remember from the top of the page........"This is an analysis of the potential for RNTK from ONE spot on Earth that will represent less than ONE percent of the world's petroleum production in ten years."
If I've blown some decimal points, I'm sure I'll hear about it.
I love it.
Doop III <<
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