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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (39896)	10/22/1998 6:12:00 PM
From: Yougang Xiao	Respond to of 1579127

Jim, doubt Kumar has that kind of clout to put AMD into doghouse. There must be deeper rooted reasons for the sorry performance of the stock since the Q3 report. Certain pattern emerges ever since the introduction of K6-2-350, followed by Q3 report and K7 at MPF in which the stock either went down or barely move upward in the face of these terrific news that maybe respectively worth a couple of bucks in the middle or later part of 97. What it implied is that the stock appears to no longer react to positive news. In other words, the stock is out of "event driven" model. If this pattern holds true, then we may not be able to see the stock to jump big time when additional OEM gets signed on, 400Mhz K6-2 gets released in the next few weeks. Ever since the beginning of the year, AMD as the company has been executing almost flawlessly - from promise to fix the 0.35 production problem to conversion to 0.25, to K6-2 intro and it's following speed upgrades to the Q3 positive EPS, and to the K7 event at MPF. The stagnation of the stock performance seems has nothing to do with the execution of AMD as the company on the business side. All these factors make me to believe that AMD the stock has entered into some sort of "show me the money" model. The Q3's 1 cent was surprising but considered as non-indicative of AMD's future financial performance. The questions being asked by the Street are: Can AMD continue to make money? How much they can make? What will be the top line and bottom line growth rates? Once a company (especially a company lacks a previous financial performance track record where AMD sadly fits the bill) is under the microscope of the Street from financial perspective, it's no fun to watch the stock. The vindication of our faith in AMD may not come shortly, it may take months. AMD in the past year or so has performed beautifully on the BUSINESS and TECHNICAL improvement sides. It is the FINANCIAL performance that will finally convert the Non-believers on the Street and therefore meaningfully move the stock. Gee, to mock James Carville, "it's the EPS, stupid." Regards