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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: William Epstein who wrote (6064)10/22/1998 5:15:00 PM
From: manohar kanuri  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7841
 
>>>My fear is that the stock may go down, as low as, 13 or 14 before it starts to rise.>>>

I doubt we'll go that low unless:

1. Dow breaks below 7400 again. And/or

2. A stronger consensus emerges that Seagate does not have a significant enough edge (revenue-wise) to keep it out of the commodity cesspit of the low end business. The way I look at it - willy-nilly it's on the edge, peering in with bedroom eyes.

mano



To: William Epstein who wrote (6064)10/22/1998 11:19:00 PM
From: DJBEINO  Respond to of 7841
 
KOMAG INC. - KMAG -- Conditions for the disk drive industry have been dismal at best, as reflected in stock prices for the industry across the board. In fact, even with the stocks trading at depressed prices, most analysts caution would-be investors against being lured by apparent rock-bottom prices. While there is some indication that industry fundamentals may be solidifying, the only meaningful change in recommendations is a lack of expectations of further earnings disap-pointments. Despite this discouraging outlook, a recent round of accumulation by Komag executives appears worthy of consideration. Granted, insiders at other companies in the disk drive industry were buying shares at what appeared to be bargain prices earlier in the year, only to see their stocks continue to fall. However, the number of shares being purchased by "seasoned" executives seems to confirm that negative news is not on the horizon. From August 6 to August 25, five executives purchased 110,000 shares at $2.88-$3.50 per share. Director Anthony Sun, a Board member since '83, bought 20,000 shares in his first open-market purchase since '91. Mr. Sun's affiliations with numerous tech-related companies appear to distinguish him as a seasoned industry insider. Director Irwin Federman's 20,000 share purchase was his first since initially filing in '88. Some of Mr. Federman's other affiliations include Western Digital, Advanced Micro Devices, and Sandisk. Director Craig Barrett, a Board member since '89 and an Intel executive since '74, bought 20,000 shares. Director Masayoshi Takebayashi, a frequent seller in the past, purchased 20,000 shares in his first open-market buy since initially filing in '92. Finally, SVP & Chief Technical Officer Christopher Bajorek bought 30,000 shares-his first open-market buy since becoming a filer in '96. Adding to the significance of this activity is that Komag executives were selling shares when the stock was trading at its highs. Komag Inc. develops, manufactures and markets thin film media disks, primarily for storage medium for digital data in computer hard drive disks.



To: William Epstein who wrote (6064)10/23/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7841
 
William,

My fear is that the stock may go down, as low as, 13 or 14 before it starts to rise.

Working from their July 3, 1998 balance sheet SEG has working capital over $2.2 billion, of which $1.7 billion was cash and short-term investments. Subtract long-term debt from working capital and you have $1.5 billion or $6.3/share. At today's prices each SEG share has $5.7 worth of VRTS stock. Together these two items are worth $12/share. At $13 or $14 this would be giving the disk drive business away for free.

Not that markets haven't been know to go to ridiculous extremes, but I think your fears are overblown. I am personally becoming quite positive on the company and thinking that a rally to the $30 area is very possible. My feeling is that the worst is over since the inventories that have plagued the PC food-chain are mostly worked down. But what do I know, I'm just a boring long-term holder of the stock?

-Robert