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To: jopawa who wrote (8882)	10/22/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: wily	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

SI surfing: >>Hi Mike, Are you buying puts on any of the semi-equip companies besides applied materials. To notable eps disasters that are cruisin for more bruisin i've come across are KLA-Tencor and Teradyne. How can people justify an industry turnaround when next year's numbers are being continuosly revised downward. Beyond that we have comments from industry execs themselves that say this is the worst downturn the industry has ever seen and will have permanent crippling effects on industry growth prospects. An AMAT exec himself has said the industry will never again see growth rates that it saw in the mid-90's. Beyond that, he said 1999 is "imponderable." I'm looking for a dead cat bounce for the rest of the year and a major hit to the SOX and Semi-Equip companies early in 1999. Your views would be appreciated. BTW, the biotechs are showing some life in here. What scares me though is that people may be running too hard at these companies which will in turn stretch some of these valuations again. All in all, i think this industry is poised for growth beyond the millenium. I'm thinking about calls on the BTK but the premiums are still wacked out for any decent risk/reward scenario. Regards GS Message 6120186

To: jopawa who wrote (8882)	10/24/1998 2:42:00 AM
From: Alan Hume	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

John, Fleckstein makes a good point about semicon makers. Where exactly is the good news? I have been reading for the past 18 months that the bust is over, and happiness is just around the corner. But ir seems like chasing the end of the rainbow, the further you go the further away it gets. The only news I read is that 64M DRAM prices have stabilized in the past 2 months (big deal). But what has driven CY, ADI, VLSI etc in the past week? I don't see it either Regards Alan